天然橡胶：供需驱动趋弱，成本支撑下逢低做多

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand drive for natural rubber is weakening, but the strengthening of synthetic rubber limits the downside space and momentum of natural rubber. The price range of Shanghai rubber at the beginning of the year is raised to the range of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range on a single - side basis and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities such as going long on NR and short on RU, as well as going long on NR and short on mixed rubber [8][80] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, Shanghai rubber showed a trend of "rising first, then falling, and oscillating downward", with the price center gradually moving down. The core contradiction shifted from tight supply to an expectation of loose supply. The main contract price fluctuated between 15,885 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton. In the early stage (January - February), it rebounded due to seasonal supply tightness, and in March, it declined as the supply was expected to increase [14][15] - The spread structure of Shanghai rubber RU2609 - RU2605 changed from near - month premium to near - month discount. The RU - NR spread first widened and then narrowed. Synthetic rubber BR changed from a large discount to a large premium over natural rubber [19] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The US - Iran war may drag down global economic growth. The conflict has led to a significant increase in oil and gas prices, with the INE crude oil price rising by over 58% from March 2nd to March 23rd, and the Brent crude oil spot price reaching a record high at the end of March. It is expected that the global oil supply will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March. The growth of major global economies is expected to slow down in 2026 [27][29] - Inflation pressure is transmitted through three channels, compressing the space for monetary policy easing. Central banks around the world face difficult choices, and there is a risk of recession or stagflation in the world economy [30][32][33] 3.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.3.1 Upstream Supply and Raw Materials - ANRPC predicts that in 2026, global natural rubber production will increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons. In Q2, domestic and overseas production areas will enter the tapping season. If there is no abnormal climate, the overall supply in the market is expected to increase, and the downward pressure on costs due to increased supply may become more obvious after Q2 [34][40] 3.3.2 Imports and Inventory - In 2026, the domestic import volume decreased slightly year - on - year. In February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.16%. As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was at a medium - to - high level, and it may enter a destocking process after Q2 [43][45] 3.3.3 Downstream Demand - In the first two months of 2026, the tire industry showed a "weak domestic demand, strong export, and structural differentiation" pattern. Tire exports increased by 12.1% year - on - year. The automobile market was "cold domestically, hot overseas, with overall pressure and structural differentiation". Exports were the core support, with a year - on - year increase of 48.4%. The heavy - truck market was "stable domestically, strong in exports, and with structural upgrading", with exports increasing by 30.98% year - on - year [51][53][56] 3.4 Cost - Profit and Spread Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - Profit Analysis - In Q1, the raw material prices of natural rubber in Thailand showed an upward trend, with the price of glue reaching a quarterly high of 76 Thai baht/kg in March. The processing profit of natural rubber in Thailand was under pressure, with STR20 standard rubber in continuous loss and RSS3 smoked sheet rubber remaining profitable [63][64][66] 3.4.2 Spot - Futures Spread Analysis - In Q1, the non - standard spot - futures spread of Shanghai rubber first widened and then narrowed. Due to the low number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of state reserve purchases, it is recommended to conduct phased trading in non - standard operations [70] 3.4.3 Disk Spread Analysis - The RU - NR spread first widened and then narrowed in Q1, and it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the RU - NR spread. The strengthening of synthetic rubber limits the downside space and momentum of natural rubber [74]