地缘冲突影响情绪，基本面延续承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on glass and soda ash (FG/SA) is bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - In Q1, the prices of glass and soda ash were pressured by the loose supply-demand fundamentals, but rebounded periodically due to the market sentiment boosted by the escalating geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. In Q2, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash will continue to be pressured, and the upward drive is restricted by the weak industry demand. The supply reduction is the key to solve the problem of loose supply-demand. Industry customers should focus on selling hedging and cash-and-carry arbitrage [1][3][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Q1 Glass Price Pressured and Fluctuated - Glass futures and spot prices were generally stable with a steady center of gravity and pressured prices in Q1. Affected by administrative production cuts and geopolitical conflicts, glass prices strengthened periodically, with the main contract price fluctuating narrowly between 1050-1150. The price was pushed up by production cuts and geopolitical conflicts but adjusted downward due to the pressured fundamentals. The supply reduction was slow, downstream demand was weak, and inventory pressure was high [4] - The basis fluctuated narrowly, with more opportunities for cash-and-carry trading, and the fluctuations came from the futures side. The inter-month spread also fluctuated narrowly. Glass factory profits were mainly under pressure and fluctuated due to the increase in raw fuel costs and the cautious performance of spot prices [5] 1.2 Soda Ash Price Fluctuated in a Range - The overall trend of soda ash prices in Q1 was similar to that of glass, but with stronger supply elasticity and greater price fluctuations. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, soda ash prices rose significantly but then fell back, with the main contract oscillating between 1150-1270. The price increase was mainly due to the fermentation of the geopolitical conflict, but the pressured fundamentals dragged down the upward movement. The high supply pressure was prominent, and the terminal demand was weak [9] - The basis fluctuated narrowly in Q1, and the inter-month spread narrowed and flattened. There was no obvious supply-demand difference over time, and the spread also fluctuated narrowly [12] 2. Glass Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply to Continue to Decline Steadily in Q2 - From January to February 2026, the output of float glass was 8.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%. In Q1, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased steadily, and the start-up and capacity utilization rates declined. The supply decreased due to the implementation of "clean energy transformation" policies and market self-regulation [16] - The profit continued to be under pressure. The cost of glass production with different fuels was relatively high, and the weekly average profit was negative. In Q2, the supply will continue to decline steadily due to profit squeeze and administrative requirements, although some glass factories have production plans, the new production capacity is expected to be limited [18] 2.2 Demand Generally Weak but Resilient - In Q1, glass demand was generally average but resilient. The glass factory inventory first increased and then decreased, but the overall inventory pressure was still high. Due to the weak real estate and stable manufacturing, the overall demand was weak. In Q2, the demand is expected to remain weak, with the real estate demand being weak in the medium term and the manufacturing demand remaining resilient [20][21] 3. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply Remained at a High Level - Since the beginning of this year, the capacity has been operating at a high level, and the supply has remained high. The cumulative weekly output from the beginning of the year to late March reached 9.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The influence of maintenance reduction cannot be underestimated, and the industry concentration is high. The import has decreased significantly, and the export has improved significantly [23][24] - The national soda ash capacity is currently about 44 million tons. The Alashan Phase II project of Yuanxing Energy has been put into production, and the annual output is expected to increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2026. In Q2, the new production capacity is limited. The anti-involution policy has a limited impact on the supply, mainly affecting the coal price [24] - In Q2, the soda ash supply will still remain high, but the influence of maintenance may disrupt the market. Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical conflict, which will affect the domestic soda ash price in terms of supply, cost, and demand [25] 3.2 Direct Demand Fluctuated, and Terminal Demand was Poor - In Q1, the direct demand for soda ash remained resilient. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased steadily, but the photovoltaic glass capacity increased. Due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products in April, the demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass was supported. However, the terminal demand was poor, and the soda ash demand was under prominent negative feedback pressure [28][29] - In Q2, the poor terminal demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass will continue. The direct demand will be moderately weak, and the soda ash manufacturer inventory may still accumulate. The direct demand may weaken, and the alkali price may be significantly suppressed [29] 4. Summary - In Q1, the prices of glass and soda ash strengthened due to production cuts and geopolitical conflicts but were pressured to fall back by the fundamentals. In Q2, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash will continue to be pressured, and the prices are likely to rebound due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors. The solution to the loose supply-demand lies in supply reduction. Industry customers should focus on supply changes, selling hedging, and cash-and-carry arbitrage [31]