国泰君安期货商品研究晨报;贵金属及基本金属-20260330

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2] - Copper: A strong dollar limits price rebounds [2] - Zinc: Runs strongly [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Oscillates strongly [2] - Aluminum: Focus on supply disruptions [2] - Alumina: Ranges in an oscillatory manner [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Overall weak [2] - Palladium: Oscillates at a low level [2] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2] - Stainless steel: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 yesterday was 940.00, with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume increased by 43,191 compared with the previous day, and the positions decreased by 6,229 [4]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Gold inventory decreased by 99 kg compared with the previous day [4]. - News: The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the "Tripoli" amphibious assault ship and 3,500 soldiers arrived in the Middle East. The US consumer inflation expectation has the largest increase in nearly a year [4][7]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 yesterday was 15,498, with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17,246.00, with an increase of 3.47%. The trading volume decreased by 2,980 compared with the previous day, and the positions decreased by 3,257 [4]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2,054 kg compared with the previous day [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract yesterday was 95,930, with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 95,490, with a decline of 0.46%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 6,030, and the positions decreased by 9,313 [8]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 9,365 tons compared with the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory increased by 425 tons [8]. - News: Iran's steel mills and nuclear facilities were attacked, and drones attacked Israel's largest transportation center. The US Secretary of State said the Iran war would last 2 - 4 weeks. Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended its Kennecott copper mine in Utah [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 23,380, with a daily increase of 1.34%. The trading volume increased by 35,859, and the positions decreased by 381 [11]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1,632 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons [11]. - News: Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said the US proposal was extreme and unreasonable. Shanghai's second - hand housing market had a strong "spring market" [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,555, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The trading volume decreased by 415, and the positions decreased by 8,975 [14]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 404 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 25 tons [14]. - News: Iran's steel mills and nuclear facilities were attacked, and the US - Iran conflict continued [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 362,460, with a daily increase of 2.82%, and the night - session closing price was 363,920, with an increase of 2.29%. The trading volume increased by 104,247, and the positions increased by 21,954 [18]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 353 tons [18]. - News: Houthi rebels in Yemen "joined the war", and two major aluminum giants in the Middle East were attacked [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 23,935, with an increase of 210 compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 345,552, and the positions decreased by 14,195. The closing price of the main Aluminum Alloy contract was 22,960, with an increase of 140 [21]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 137.10 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 42.09 million tons [21]. - News: UAE's EGA's core smelter was damaged in the Middle East conflict, and the US was preparing for a ground operation in Iran [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 493.05, with an increase of 1.16%. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 358.20, with an increase of 1.37% [25]. - Inventory: The NYMEX Platinum inventory decreased by 4,527 ounces, and the NYMEX Palladium inventory remained unchanged [25]. - News: The Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked Israel, and the Israeli military said it was close to completing the attack on about 90% of Iran's key military industrial facilities [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 137,100, with an increase of 1,240 compared with the previous trading day. The closing price of the main Stainless Steel contract was 14,390, with no change [31]. - Inventory: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [37]. - News: Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel ore benchmark price, and Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [31][32].