中辉有色观点-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Attention for trial long positions [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see [1] - Copper: Range - bound [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Decline [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, which has a significant impact on the prices of various metals. The short - term price trends of metals are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. Long - term trends are also influenced by factors like resource supply and demand for new energy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Core view: Gold is recommended for trial long positions, and silver is advised to wait - and - see. The short - term rebound of gold and silver may be due to the temporary relief of the liquidity crisis. The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but the short - term is affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, and the outflow of ETF funds [1][2]. - Market data: SHFE gold rose 0.27% to 998.66, COMEX gold rose 3.30% to 4521; SHFE silver rose 0.10% to 17489, COMEX silver rose 2.41% to 70. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 6.38% to 57.10, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 1.85% to 64.80 [2]. - Basic logic: The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the global economic situation is in trouble. The core suppression factors for precious metals are the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the "sell - everything" de - risk operation, and the concern about the Fed maintaining high - interest rates. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market in precious metals remain unchanged [2]. - Strategy recommendation: Gold pays attention to the support around 970 in the short term, and silver pays attention to the performance around 17000. Keep an eye on the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. Copper - Core view: Copper is in a range - bound state, waiting for the Middle East situation to become clear. In the long - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about copper [1][5]. - Market data: The closing price of SHFE copper futures decreased by 0.22% to 95490 yuan/ton, LME copper increased by 0.17% to 12141 US dollars/ton, and COMEX copper decreased by 0.16% to 546.15 US dollars/pound. The social inventory decreased by 4.03 million tons to 42.74 million tons [3]. - Industrial logic: The global copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to increase. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect the smelting of African wet - process copper. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the downstream actively priced at low points, and the demand in the peak season recovered, providing support for the price [4]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, SHFE copper pays attention to the range of [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and LME copper pays attention to the range of [12000, 12500] US dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - Core view: Zinc continues to rebound [1][8]. - Market data: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures increased by 0.49% to 23370 yuan/ton, LME zinc increased by 1.07% to 3106.5 US dollars/ton. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 24.95 million tons [6]. - Industrial logic: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and the processing fees of imported zinc concentrates are lower than expected. Some small and medium - sized smelters have reduced production. The downstream start - up has recovered, and the consumption has marginally improved. The overseas zinc smelters have a production - reduction expectation, and the LME zinc inventory is at a low level in the same period of history, providing support for the zinc price [7]. - Strategy recommendation: SHFE zinc pays attention to the range of [22300, 23500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc pays attention to the range of [3050, 3150] US dollars/ton [8]. Aluminum - Core view: The aluminum price rebounds again [1][9]. - Market data: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.92% to 3284.5 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.89% to 23935 yuan/ton. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price increased by 1.28% to 23810 yuan/ton [9]. - Industrial logic: The short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia are still in the production - climbing stage. The domestic downstream processing start - up rate has rebounded. The alumina inventory is still high, and the over - supply pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Temporarily wait - and - see for SHFE aluminum, pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operation range is [23000 - 25000] [12]. Nickel - Core view: The nickel price rebounds under pressure [1][16]. - Market data: The closing price of LME nickel increased by 0.29% to 17215 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel increased by 0.91% to 137100 yuan/ton. The SMM electrolytic nickel spot average price decreased by 0.25% to 139000 yuan/ton [13]. - Industrial logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weakening. The reduction expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore production quota is weakened. The domestic pure nickel inventory continues to increase, and the stainless - steel inventory is still at a high level, and the downstream recovery needs further verification [15]. - Strategy recommendation: Temporarily wait - and - see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesia's policy and the change of downstream stainless - steel inventory, and the main operation range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: The supply - side disturbance still exists, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [17][20]. - Market data: The main contract LC2605 increased by 7.15% to 168440 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate 99.5% increased by 1.91% to 160000 yuan/ton [17]. - Industrial logic: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The domestic mica - mine mining - license problem has not been solved, and the overseas lithium - mine policy is uncertain. The new - energy vehicle sales are poor, but the material link is still operating at full capacity, which may support the lithium - carbonate price [19]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait - and - see, and the range is [160000 - 173000] [20].