2026年黑色商品二季度策略报告：外炽内寒，玉汝于成-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the coking coal and coke market in Q2 2026 lies in the game between the "certain contraction on the demand side" and the "structural support on the supply side", with an expected wide - range oscillatory pattern [3][97]. - The demand side is the main drag. Under the guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the steel industry's reduction and adjustment, the total demand for molten iron production and raw materials is unlikely to grow. The supply side shows obvious differentiation: coking coal has a stronger fundamental outlook than coke, while the coke industry generally has excess capacity and relatively loose supply [3][97]. - After the rise in Q1, the absolute valuation of coking coal and coke has recovered from extremely low levels to a neutral state. The coking coal/iron ore ratio has returned to a reasonable range, and the cost - performance of actively going long has decreased. The coke/coking coal ratio (coking profit) has also recovered to around the five - year average, and opportunities to short coking profit on rallies can be considered [3][98][99]. - The traditional "Golden March and Silver April" seasonal pattern has weakened. The price fluctuation in Q2 will depend more on the dynamic game of multiple factors such as the actual strength of demand, the implementation of policy expectations, supply disruptions, and overseas geopolitical conflicts, and the rhythm may follow an "N" - shaped oscillation [3][100]. - It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory - bullish approach. For unilateral operations, focus on the demand for finished steel products and cost support. For arbitrage, seize the phased opportunity to short coking profit (long coking coal and short coke) [3][102][103]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 1.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, the coking coal futures market continued its rebound from last year's low, showing a unilateral upward trend. The price was driven by improved domestic macro - expectations, winter restocking demand in the industry chain, and supply - side tightening expectations at the beginning of the year. After March, the international geopolitical conflict (US - Iran war) further strengthened the bullish sentiment [8]. - From the beginning of the year to March 25, the coking coal weighted index rose by 20.1%, significantly higher than the 12.0% increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal spot. Since the US - Iran war, the coking coal weighted index has risen by 16.7%, outperforming other black commodities [8]. 1.2 Coking Coal Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Overview: In Q1 2026, domestic coal production showed the characteristics of "slight decline in total volume, regional differentiation, and rigid supply". The cumulative raw coal output of large - scale enterprises was 7.6 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The production in major producing areas was significantly different: Shanxi's output decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, Inner Mongolia remained stable with a 0.9% growth rate, and Shaanxi increased by 6.2% year - on - year [13]. - Coking Coal Imports: From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In February, single - month imports decreased by 31.36% month - on - month due to the Spring Festival. Mongolian coal dominated, with a cumulative proportion of 55.82%. In Q2 2026, the core variable of Mongolian coal prices is transportation cost, which may suppress the marginal purchasing willingness of coking enterprises and the import rhythm [27][31]. - Steam Coal Overview: In Q1, the steam coal market showed a tight - balance pattern with internal - external differentiation. Domestically, demand showed unexpected resilience, and port inventories decreased. Externally, imports declined significantly in February. In Q2, the price center may move up, but the upside space and rhythm will be constrained. The core contradiction is shifting from domestic supply - demand balance to the game between global resource availability and import cost [33][35][37]. 1.3 Coking Coal Inventory and Profit - Coking Coal Inventory: In Q1, the coking coal market showed a "high - inventory balance" with obvious internal structural differentiation. The inventory pressure was concentrated in the upstream, while the downstream maintained a neutral inventory level. In Q2, the change in coking coal inventory depends on the recovery strength of terminal demand, and the industry may continue the "high - inventory, structurally differentiated" situation [45][46]. - Coal Profit: In Q1, the coal industry had a complex situation of "improved supply - demand structure but deep - seated pressure on industry profits". Although the supply - demand pattern improved, the industry's profitability was still under pressure. In Q2, the supply - demand tight - balance pattern is expected to continue, but the substantial recovery of profits still requires more significant improvements in supply and demand [53][55]. Chapter 2: Coke Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Market Review - In Q1, the coke futures price showed an oscillatory upward trend, highly correlated with coking coal but with a relatively moderate increase. The price was driven by improved macro - expectations, cost support, and the transmission of geopolitical conflicts. As of March 25, the coke weighted index rose by 9.6% year - to - date and 9.9% since the US - Iran war, ranking second among black commodities [58]. 2.2 Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Coke Supply: In 2026, the coke industry's supply side showed a pattern of "net increase in production capacity and slight increase in output". The net new production capacity in 2026 is expected to reach 10.63 million tons. From January to February 2026, the national coke output was 82.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.79%. In Q2, the actual coke output will mainly depend on the demand intensity of downstream steel production and the profitability of coking enterprises [63]. - Coke Demand: In Q1 2026, the production activities in the middle and lower reaches were generally stable. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained at a relatively high level. For Q2 2026, under the benchmark scenario, coke demand may increase seasonally by 0 - 2%; under the optimistic scenario, it may increase by 2 - 4%; under the pessimistic scenario, it may contract year - on - year [71][72][73]. 2.3 Coke Inventory and Profit - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory is characterized by "relatively high total inventory but moderate seasonal inventory accumulation". In Q2, the inventory trend depends on the recovery strength of terminal demand. Under the benchmark scenario, the industry may enter a seasonal de - stocking cycle, but if demand recovery is less than expected, the de - stocking speed may be slow [80]. - Coking Profit: In Q1, the average profit per ton of coke and the overall industry profit margin fluctuated around the break - even line. The profit structure was significantly differentiated. In Q2, the coking industry is expected to maintain a slight profit, but the gap in profitability among enterprises may widen [86]. - Coking Industry Operating Strategy: A nine - grid analysis framework is constructed based on inventory and profit to assist production enterprises in making production decisions. When the inventory is at a medium level and the enterprise is profitable, it is recommended to maintain a reasonable production rhythm and raw material inventory level and lock in future profits by selling an appropriate proportion of futures contracts [88][90]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Coking Coal and Coke Market in 2026 - The core contradiction in the Q2 coking coal and coke market is the game between demand contraction and supply - side structural support. The demand side is the main drag, while the supply side shows structural differentiation, with coking coal having a stronger fundamental outlook than coke [97]. - After the Q1 rise, the absolute valuation of coking coal and coke has recovered to a neutral state. The coking coal/iron ore ratio has returned to a reasonable range, and the coke/coking coal ratio has recovered to around the five - year average [98][99]. - The traditional "Golden March and Silver April" pattern has weakened. The Q2 price trend may show an "N" - shaped or "inverted V" - shaped oscillation, and the market is expected to present a wide - range oscillatory pattern with an upper limit and a lower limit [100][101]. - Strategy suggestions include treating the market with an oscillatory approach for unilateral operations, focusing on shorting coking profit for inter - commodity arbitrage, and carefully considering inter - month arbitrage based on contract fundamentals and delivery rules [102][103].