底部震荡格局延续，关注产能去化节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026 Q1, the spot and futures prices of live pigs continued to hit new lows, with the spot price falling below 10 yuan/kg, and the industry plunged into deep losses. The futures market showed a structure of near - term weakness and long - term strength, reflecting market expectations of short - term oversupply and medium - to - long - term improvement. In Q2 and later, pig prices are likely to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with a front - low and back - high term structure. Policy support can provide short - term relief but cannot change the overall supply - demand situation. For futures trading, opportunities can be seized based on capacity reduction progress and changes in the slaughter rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Market Review - In Q1 2026, domestic live pig spot and futures prices declined steadily, with the spot market being weaker. After the Spring Festival, due to the end of pre - festival stocking and the entry into the consumption off - season, the supply - demand imbalance intensified, and the spot price of pigs dropped unilaterally. The futures market also weakened, with near - term contracts hitting new lows. The price difference structure showed a typical bearish pattern, with near - term contracts under pressure and far - term contracts pricing in capacity reduction and market recovery expectations [9]. - In terms of the basis and price difference structure, the basis weakened and turned into a deep discount after the Spring Festival, and although it slightly recovered in March, it remained at a historically low level. The price difference structure maintained a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and the contango structure became more obvious, indicating market expectations of short - term oversupply and medium - to - long - term improvement [11]. 3.1.2 Futures Position and Trading Volume - In Q1 2026, the position of the weighted live pig contract first decreased and then increased, remaining above 300,000 lots, and exceeding 430,000 lots at the end of the quarter. The trading volume was significantly higher than in previous years, with a pattern of price decline and position increase, reflecting the dominance of short - side funds and intensified long - short competition [14]. 3.2 Anti - involution in the Pig Cycle 3.2.1 Anti - involution Review - In Q1 2026, live pig policies shifted from flexible guidance to rigid capacity constraints, with clearer goals and more precise implementation. Policies such as adjusting the reasonable inventory of breeding sows, implementing financial regulation, and starting frozen pork purchases were introduced, which partially corrected extreme market pessimism and accelerated industry reshuffling [16]. 3.2.2 Progress of the Pig Cycle - Before the African Swine Fever outbreak, China experienced five complete pig cycles from 2002 - 2022, mainly caused by supply - side shocks. After the African Swine Fever, the pig cycle showed new characteristics such as shorter duration, increased short - term volatility, and stronger capacity resilience. Currently, the industry is in the deep bottom - grinding stage of the seventh cycle, with continuous losses and the cycle reversal waiting for accelerated capacity reduction [17][20][23]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Pattern of the Live Pig Market 3.3.1 Supply Side - Live Pig Inventory and Slaughter: As of Q4 2025, the national live pig inventory reached 429.67 million, with an increase of 2.24 million year - on - year. The inventory structure showed an increase in the proportion of small pigs and a decrease in medium and large pigs. In terms of slaughter volume, in Q4 2025, the national live pig slaughter was 719.73 million, a year - on - year increase of about 2.44%. In 2026, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises remained high. The average slaughter weight was still at a relatively high level, and the effect of anti - involution on weight reduction was limited [25][31]. - Supply of Breeding Sows and Piglets: Since H2 2025, the inventory of breeding sows has been gradually decreasing. As of January 2026, it was about 39.58 million, still above the normal level. The efficiency of breeding sows has increased, and the MSY in 2025 increased by about 2.0% year - on - year. The number of piglets born remained high, indicating high supply pressure in H1 2026 [34][41][48]. - Import Situation: From 2025 to Q1 2026, China's pork imports remained at a low level, accounting for a decreasing proportion of domestic consumption. Import costs increased, and the price advantage of imported products was lost. External supply has little impact on the domestic market [52]. - Capacity Situation: From 2025 to Q1 2026, the cost of pig feed increased, and the breeding profit of live pigs has been in a loss state for several months. The industry is about to enter a stage of double losses for piglets and fattened pigs, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate [60]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - Population aging is one of the core factors leading to a continuous decline in pork consumption. The catering industry showed a recovery trend in Q1 2026, but the overall demand elasticity is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - demand situation. The slaughtering rate remained at a relatively high level, mainly driven by sufficient supply. The live pig - meat price ratio first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity has been gradually moving up in recent years. The fresh - frozen price difference narrowed, and the fresh - sales rate decreased while the frozen - product storage rate increased, which will suppress the rebound of pig prices. The secondary fattening utilization rate remained at a low level, and the policy is concerned about restricting secondary fattening. The national pig - grain price ratio entered the first - level warning range, and the state has started frozen pork purchases [65][66][75]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The core driver of the current live pig futures market is the structural changes in supply and demand, and policy regulation is only a short - term disturbing factor. The current core contradiction lies in the verification of short - term loose supply and medium - to - long - term capacity reduction. In 2026 Q2 and later, pig prices are likely to show a pattern of low in the front and high in the back, with a bottom - oscillating pattern. In Q2, pig prices will remain at the bottom, and in the second half of the year, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase will be limited. The futures market can seize short - term layout opportunities and consider the reverse spread strategy between contracts [77][78].