金三已兑现，关注二季度预期差

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has strong bottom support, but there are short - term callback risk factors in the fundamentals. Further upward breakthrough requires the implementation of policies and continuous follow - up of downstream demand. The global cotton supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the slow depletion of the previous surplus inventory will improve the global supply - demand pattern. The domestic demand has certain resilience, but the export growth rate may gradually decline [3][114][115]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Zhengzhou Cotton: In Q1 2026, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton traded around "production reduction expectation" and "demand recovery". The adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting area and the recovery of downstream demand supported the upward movement of the center of gravity. Although there were short - term suppressions, the overall upward trend was obvious [8]. - US Cotton: In Q1 2026, the main contract of US cotton showed a "V" - shaped trend. The market logic shifted from "terminal demand concerns" to "supply contraction expectation + marginal improvement in exports". The expectation of reduced planting area and the improvement of export conditions drove the price to rebound [9]. 3.2 Overseas Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis - Global Supply - Demand Balance Overview: In the 2025/2026 cotton year, the global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, imports and exports increased slightly, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The adjustment of this report has a slightly bearish impact on the global market [11][12][13]. - Global Climate Overview: In 2026, the climate will change from La Nina to El Nino. El Nino may lead to a significant increase in the risk of production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere and a relatively favorable situation in the Southern Hemisphere. The global cotton output may decline slightly [17][18]. - US Market Supply - Demand Situation: - Area and Yield: The new - year planting area is expected to decline, and the drought in the main producing areas will restrict the yield. The total output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by about 2.3% [28][29]. - Exports: As of March 19, the signing volume was lower than the same period, but the shipment volume was higher. In the future, with the improvement of global textile demand and China's procurement willingness, the export prospects are expected to improve [32][33]. - Inventory: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the US cotton is still in a state of inventory accumulation, but there is room for marginal improvement in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [35][36]. - Brazilian Market Supply - Demand Situation: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the planting area is expected to decrease by 5%, and the yield is expected to decrease by 6.9%. The export is in a downward channel, but the new - season supply contraction will support the price [39][40]. - Indian Market Supply - Demand Situation: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to be the same as the previous year. The domestic textile consumption is recovering, but the export is under pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to remain relatively loose [43][44]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Situation - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: According to the USDA and BCO, in the 2025/26 cotton year, China's cotton output increased, consumption increased slightly, and imports increased slightly. In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to converge [45][46][47]. - Industrial Progress: As of late March, the cotton inspection was nearing completion, and the sales rate of new cotton had reached over 74%. The core contradiction is the inventory depletion rate of ginning mills and the purchasing willingness of downstream spinning mills [50]. - Output: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline. The actual implementation of the production reduction task may face challenges, and the actual reduction in 2026 may be 5 - 8% [53][54]. - Imports: In the early stage of 2026, cotton imports were strong, but the annual import volume is expected to be relatively low. Imported yarn may suppress the domestic cotton price. The import tariff of US cotton has been reduced, but there are still uncertainties [64][65][66]. - Inventory: China's cotton commercial inventory is at a high level, but the year - on - year increase has been significantly alleviated. The inventory depletion expectation is relatively optimistic, but the potential release of state - reserve cotton needs to be noted [78][79]. - Demand: - Load and Profit: As of March 21, the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills were higher than the same period. The profit of spinning mills showed a V - shaped trend. However, there may be some demand front - loading factors, and the high operating load may face a decline pressure [86][87][89]. - Retail and Consumption: In January - February 2026, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, the growth rate is expected to slow down. In the long - term, the consumption structure is still restricted by population and debt [90][91][94]. - Exports: In January - February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. However, the subsequent replenishment order space in the US is limited, and the export growth rate may decline [105][106][113]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the new - cotton inventory pressure and the issuance of import quotas will suppress the cotton price. In the long term, with the implementation of Xinjiang's target price subsidy policy and the start of downstream replenishment demand, the supply - demand situation will improve, and the cotton price is expected to rise. However, it is necessary to pay attention to potential risks such as macro - environment changes, policy implementation, and abnormal weather [114][115][117].