电解铝期货品种周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. The current supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. In the short term, the aluminum price may have an oversold rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The mainstream operating range of the aluminum price next week is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton. The range of SHFE Aluminum 2605 is expected to be 23,700 - 24,500 [5][10]. - The new long positions are recommended to wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The medium - to long - term is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and global economic stagflation, the supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. The aluminum price may have an oversold rebound next week, but the rebound space may be limited [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see, and temporarily avoid new long positions [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Hold light long positions [8]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - Bauxite Market: In the first quarter, Guinean mines have achieved full - production operation, and the supply is expected to remain high from April to June. However, Guinea plans to limit bauxite exports before early April to stabilize prices. The bauxite price of $60 may be the medium - to long - term bottom. Even if the export quota is implemented, the bauxite shipment from Guinea will not decline sharply in the short term [9]. - Alumina Market: As of March 27, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,220 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.58%. The market supply - demand has changed from surplus to tight balance. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted the caustic soda supply, and Guinea's export control has led to market recovery [9]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In February, the domestic built - in production capacity was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton production capacity limit. Projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the process of production, and some idle production capacity in the Northeast may resume production on a small scale. Overseas, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on the global aluminum supply chain. Qatar Aluminum has cut production by 636,000 tons, and Bahrain Aluminum has declared force majeure. ANZ Bank estimates that about 8 - 10 million tons of production will be affected in 2026, and it is expected to return to normal production by 2028 [9]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products has significantly declined from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [9]. - Inventory: As of March 27, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was about 1.371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 69%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has significantly decreased, and the warehouse shipment volume has significantly increased during the price decline. The inventory accumulation cycle may be coming to an end. The inventory of aluminum rods is 330,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 26%, still at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [9]. - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton (last week it was about 7,300 yuan/ton), at a historical high level [10]. - Market Expectation: The industry continues to improve, but the macro - guidance is weak. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain in the current range next week, with a mainstream operating range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite from Guinea and Australia have increased, while the price of domestic bauxite remains unchanged. The number of ship bookings by mines and traders has not significantly decreased. It is expected that the shipment volume in April will decrease, but the reduction is controllable. - The price of port thermal coal has shown a moderately strong shock trend this week. The market operation is relatively cautious. The current coal supply is at a high level, and the inventory days are higher than the safety line, so most power plants have no obvious pressure to replenish inventory. - The alumina price has risen and then fallen this week. The social inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and there is a large amount of inventory in the delivery warehouse. The upward price space is limited, and the lower limit is the cost line and the impact of overseas bauxite [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic bauxite supply is still in a relatively abundant state. The arrival volume in April may decrease, but the reduction is limited. - The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past 5 years. The in - plant inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased since March, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has continued to accumulate at a high level. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [15]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - Profit: The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss of alumina is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 4,000 yuan/ton [17]. - Downstream开工概况: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 62.9% this week. The production of aluminum profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The demand for canning materials, batteries and other related products has continued to pick up, but the orders for automobile sheets have been affected by the tax incentive phase - out. The demand for aluminum cables is at a peak level, and the order scheduling in April is expected to be good. The orders for battery foils and packaging foils are prominent. Overall, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, but the high aluminum price and macro - uncertainty still suppress the demand release elasticity [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current SHFE aluminum futures show a contango market structure, with general spot demand. However, the slope of the spot price has eased compared with last month, and the spot - end demand is better than that in February. In the short term, the price is continuously guided by the macro - factors [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,980 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,790 yuan/ton last week. The current spread is supportive of electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. - The spread between the ADC12 spot and the active month of the SHFE casting alloy is about 3,740 yuan/ton this week, compared with 4,040 yuan/ton last week. The basis of ADC12 is at a high level in recent years, and the shortage of alloy spot is obvious [38][40]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position has further shrunk, but it is still at a high level since 2018. Since January, the net long position of funds has generally shown a fluctuating decline. In the latest period, the reduction of the long - position camp is obvious, while the short - position camp generally remains inactive. The long - position still dominates, but the net long - power is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [41]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net short - position of the main contract has remained stable and has decreased during the recent price decline. This week, the electrolytic aluminum price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and both the long and short camps have continued to significantly reduce their positions. The main contract is currently in a net short - position. Institutions mainly for speculation show signs of turning from net short to net long. The funds from the mid - and downstream enterprises have turned to a slight net short - position. Overall, the main - force funds are inclined to a slight rebound in the short - term price [44].