铜：地缘乱局失控边缘流动性危机下去杠杆化黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current commodity market is in a historical stage of reshaping the global supply - demand balance system. The pricing of key strategic raw materials is being re - evaluated under the influence of global geopolitics, great - power games, and supply - chain restructuring. Financial attributes and medium - long - term policy expectations are the main driving forces [2][7][16]. - The attack on the UAE Global Aluminum's 1.6 - million - ton electrolytic aluminum base in March marked the transition of the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global supply chain from the "risk premium" stage to the "substantial large - scale supply reduction" stage. The market is in a game between the "real industrial shortage" and the "panic of macro - soft sentiment" [3][7][66]. - For the copper market, it maintains an oscillating pattern between macro and industrial aspects. The high global visible inventory and recession concerns put pressure on prices, while the domestic downstream replenishment demand after price corrections provides support. The price of copper is expected to oscillate and resist decline in the second quarter, with a core price fluctuation range of about 90,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [4][9][69]. - Aluminum has become a clear long - allocation core due to the "supply hard - interruption" logic. The supply crisis in the aluminum market is systemic, and the cost and price center of the entire industry chain will be irreversibly raised. Investors should actively seek to layout and use price corrections for batch and light - position buying [4][9][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Macro Main - Line Trend Tracking - The global commodity market is in a stage of reshaping the supply - demand balance. Geopolitical and economic factors have led to inefficiencies, increased costs, and imbalances in global trade. The pricing of strategic resources is being re - evaluated [2][7][16]. - The attack on the UAE aluminum giant has led to about 10% of the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity being in uncertainty, forcing the market to re - evaluate the long - term supply - demand balance. The market is affected by both industrial shortages and macro - level concerns [3][7][66]. - The precious metals sector is in a high - volatility dilemma due to the tug - of - war between tightening expectations and safe - haven needs. The copper market oscillates, and aluminum is a long - allocation core. The market should control positions and seize opportunities in industries with fundamental changes [8][9][69]. - In 2025 - 2026, Trump's policies and global political uncertainties will bring risks. Key strategic resources are at the core of great - power games, and the politicalization of resources will increase supply - chain costs [9][12][21]. 3.2 Commodity Copper Market Observation - Copper has high - volatility characteristics due to the re - pricing of its financial and commodity attributes, as well as supply - chain costs, capital games, and policy uncertainties. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and long - term risk premiums may increase [16][19][20]. - Copper is at the core of global resource games. Its price fluctuations are affected by geopolitics, capital flows, and market sentiment. Supply shortages and increasing demand in emerging fields coexist [20][21][22]. - The copper market shows four characteristics: increased price volatility, intensified great - power games, re - evaluation of strategic value, and intensified capital games. The domestic market has a weak terminal demand and a structural imbalance in the industrial chain [30][33][34]. - The "Working Plan for Steady Growth of the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, aiming to promote the development of the non - ferrous metals industry, which will have a profound impact on the industry pattern [35][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand Hot - Spot Analysis - Copper 3.3.1 Upstream Resources - The supply of copper ore is tightening, with the growth rate of global copper concentrate production being low. China's copper self - sufficiency rate is low, and overseas mine disturbances have a significant impact on supply [37][38][39]. - China's copper industry chain faces a "bottleneck" problem in resources. The supply of copper concentrate and scrap copper is tight, and domestic smelters may reduce production [38][39][52]. - Global copper resource trade and supply - demand are structurally imbalanced. China's copper industry needs to strengthen resource security, optimize the industrial structure, and enhance technological innovation [38][39][42]. 3.3.2 Smelting and Trade - China's refined copper production and sales account for about 50% of the world, but the copper ore self - sufficiency rate is low. The upstream copper ore is highly concentrated, and China has a weak bargaining power in importing resources [43][44]. - The copper supply chain is affected by geopolitical games and trade protectionism. China's copper industry needs structural reform to improve its long - term competitiveness [45][47][53]. - The processing fee of copper concentrate has dropped significantly, indicating a strong bargaining power of global copper miners. The supply of copper concentrate is short, and smelters may reduce production [53][55][58]. 3.3.3 Downstream Consumption - China's copper consumption is undergoing a structural transformation. Traditional investment's contribution to copper consumption is slowing down, while new energy and new infrastructure are promoting copper consumption [59]. - China's copper consumption is expected to remain at a high level for a long time, and the peak may be around 2030. However, China's copper industry is highly dependent on overseas copper concentrate imports [59][60][61]. - The EU and the US have strengthened the strategic importance of copper, and the global supply chain of copper is affected by geopolitical factors. China's commodity industry chain needs to deal with challenges such as weak demand and excess capacity [61][64]. 3.4 Copper Market Outlook - The commodity market is in a stage of reshaping the supply - demand balance. The pricing of strategic resources is affected by geopolitics and great - power games. The market is in a game between industrial shortages and macro - concerns [2][7][66]. - The copper market oscillates, and the short - term core range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton, with a key support at 93,000 yuan/ton. Aluminum is a long - allocation core, and investors should actively seek to layout [4][9][69]. - In the long - term, the re - evaluation logic of strategic resources remains unchanged. Geopolitical games will further highlight the pricing of large - scale assets. The copper price is expected to oscillate and repair in the second quarter [4][9][69].