2026 能化商品季报聚烯烃：地缘冲突加剧供给缩量预期，需求决定上行空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2026, geopolitical conflicts reversed the supply - demand pattern of PE and PP. With rising costs and reduced domestic and foreign supply, prices showed a unilateral increase with a quarterly amplitude of over 40%. In Q2, geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of supply contraction, and demand determines the upside space. The supply - side core variables depend on import reduction and inventory device maintenance. The continuous reduction of upstream production supports the bottom of the disk price. The key to price continuation in Q2 lies in the downstream's acceptance of prices. Considering the low value and wide application of polyolefin end - products, the downstream's price - bearing capacity is expected to be stronger. Currently, the industrial explicit inventory has dropped to a low level, and the supply - demand expectation of the 05 contract is positive [4][69]. - The operation suggestion is to buy on dips for single - side trading. The L main contract should focus on the range of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract on the same range. For arbitrage, long the 5 - month contract and short the 9 - month contract [5][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Unilateral Soaring and Structural Reversal - Unilateral perspective: In Q1 2026, polyolefins rose sharply with increased volatility. The plastic main contract fluctuated between 6433 - 9523 yuan/ton with an amplitude of 48%, and the PP main contract between 6309 - 9393 yuan/ton with an amplitude of 41%. Affected by cost support, it continued the rebound at the end of last year. Then, rumors of naphtha consumption tax reform and the North American cold wave drove the price up by over 10%. Before the Spring Festival, the price retreated. After the festival, the US - Iran conflict broke out, with cost increase and raw material interruption leading to a continuous intensification of supply - side contraction, and PE and PP both rose by over 30% in three weeks [9]. - Spot - futures perspective: From January to February, the basis was stable. After the war, the basis volatility increased. At the beginning of the war, the near - month supply - demand was more affected, and the basis strengthened. Later, with the negative feedback of terminal demand, the basis weakened rapidly. The PP basis fluctuation was similar to that of PE, but the inventory reduction was more significant [10]. - Cross - variety perspective: The maintenance rhythm of PE and PP was slightly different, and the LP05 spread continued to compress. From January to February, the cumulative year - on - year production of PE and PP was 11.3% and 4.9% respectively. PP maintenance was stronger. The monomer US dollar prices also differed, and the LP05 spread fell from a high of 230 yuan/ton to - 353 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2. Geopolitical Tensions Intensify Supply Contraction Expectations 3.2.1. Little New Capacity Release in the First Half of the Year - In 2026, the planned new PE capacity is 645 tons (year - on - year + 15.7%), and the planned new PP capacity is 505 tons (year - on - year + 10.3%). For the 05 contract, PP has no new capacity release, and PE has pressure from the commissioning of two enterprises. For the 09 contract, focus on the commissioning progress of Huajin Aramco. Most new devices are concentrated in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is relatively under pressure. Overall, the two PE devices commissioned at the beginning of the year produce non - standard products, and the remaining new devices are concentrated in the second half of the year. The 05 contract will not face new capacity expansion, and the supply - side trading will focus on import reduction and inventory maintenance [21]. 3.2.2. Raw Material Shortage Leads to Continuous Supply Contraction - As of March 24, the capacity utilization rates of PE and PP dropped to 76% and 70% respectively, the lowest in the past five years. The impact of raw material shortage on supply contraction is gradually emerging. The impact is transmitted through three process routes: oil - based process, PDH process, and MTO process. The oil - based process is affected by the shortage of crude oil and naphtha, leading to the maintenance of downstream PE and PP devices. The PDH process has a high adjustment ability for the supply side, and the profit loss has intensified, with the theoretical profit loss approaching 4000 yuan/ton. The MTO process is less affected, with the MTO - made PE and PP capacities accounting for less than 5% of the total [25][26]. 3.2.3. Logistics Disruptions Intensify Import Contraction Expectations - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative PE imports were 232 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The Persian Gulf is the main import source. With the extension of the war, it has changed from logistics interruption to substantial supply contraction. The control time of the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable. Even if import substitution can be sought from other regions, it will significantly impact the total import volume. The import windows of LL, LD, and HD are closed, and the domestic re - export behavior has increased significantly. For PP, the import growth rate has accelerated its decline, and the trade with the Persian Gulf is relatively limited. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has little direct impact on PP imports [46][47]. 3.2.4. Improved Profits Intensify Export Expansion Expectations - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative PE exports were 18 tons, with a growth rate of 62%. As the domestic and foreign price difference compresses, the export space is expected to open up. For PP, it has turned into a net - export structure, and the export dependence has continued to increase. In January - February 2026, the cumulative PP exports were 53 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export is mainly to neighboring countries. As the Middle - East logistics is blocked and the cracking in Asia is reduced, the domestic export profit has improved, and the export growth rate is expected to further expand after March [50]. 3.2.5. Insufficient Downstream Price Follow - up, Focus on Price Transmission Progress - Due to the greater impact on the cost side, the price increases in different parts of the industrial chain vary. As of March 25, the PE and PP spot - futures prices increased by over 30% compared with before the US - Iran war, but the downstream prices generally followed up insufficiently. The price transmission of PP downstream is relatively smooth, while the plastic downstream is more sensitive to prices and generally follows up insufficiently. The key to the price trend in Q2 lies in whether the terminal demand can form a positive feedback. If the terminal product prices can follow the upstream cost increase, it is expected to stimulate downstream replenishment demand [59]. 3.2.6. Industrial Chain Explicit Inventory Reduction - As of the end of March, the polyolefin market showed a differentiated pattern of stable PE inventory and accelerated PP inventory reduction. The latest PE commercial total inventory is 125 tons, a slight increase of 7 tons compared with the same period last year. LD has the strongest inventory reduction, and LL has accelerated inventory reduction from a high level. The PP inventory reduction is stronger, with the latest commercial total inventory reduced by 33 tons to 75 tons, the lowest in the past five years, and the monthly inventory reduction amplitude setting a record [64]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In Q2, geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of supply contraction, and demand determines the upside space. The supply - side core variables depend on import reduction and inventory device maintenance. The upstream continuous production reduction supports the bottom of the disk price. The key to price continuation in Q2 lies in the downstream's acceptance of prices. Considering the low value and wide application of polyolefin end - products, the downstream's price - bearing capacity is expected to be stronger. Currently, the industrial explicit inventory has dropped to a low level, and the supply - demand expectation of the 05 contract is positive. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips for single - side trading. The L main contract should focus on the range of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract on the same range. For arbitrage, long the 5 - month contract and short the 9 - month contract [69].