格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The urea price is expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 1830 - 1950 yuan/ton due to complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East, high - volatility of international crude oil, temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities overseas, cautious mid - downstream high - price purchasing, low pressure on upstream factories, suspension of exports and release of reserve supplies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 rose 8 yuan to 1877 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1860 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 124 lots to 271,000 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 266 lots to 306,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily urea production in the industry is 20.9 tons, 0.1 tons less than the previous working day and 1.2 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 70.05 tons, 10.84 tons less than the previous period, a 13.40% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 16.9 tons, a 0.2 - ton month - on - month increase [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 51.2%, a 1.2% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 59.3%, a 5.9% month - on - month increase [1] - Tender: India's RCF urea import tender received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons [1] - Export: In January 2026, urea exports were 307,900 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase, with an average export price of 397.50 dollars/ton, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. In February 2026, exports were 111,500 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease, with an average export price of 398.52 dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [1] - Oil Price: Due to the continuous blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and market doubts about the prospect of US - Iran peace talks, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 05 rose 5.16 dollars/barrel to 99.64 dollars/barrel, a 5.46% month - on - month increase; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 rose 4.56 dollars/barrel to 112.57 dollars/barrel, a 4.22% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2605 rose 12.1 to 740.5 yuan/barrel and 19.8 to 760.3 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] Market Logic - Complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East leads to high - volatility of international crude oil. Temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities overseas causes a sharp rise in overseas urea prices. Mid - downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories face low pressure. Exports are suspended, and reserve supplies are released to the market [1] Trading Strategy - Suggestion is to wait and see or go short - term long at low prices [1]