工业硅：上方空间有限，多晶硅：震荡摸底格局

Report Summary - Report Date: March 30, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Limited Upside Space; Polysilicon: Oscillating and Bottom - Hunting Pattern [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Industrial silicon has limited upside space, and polysilicon is in an oscillating and bottom - hunting pattern [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Market: Si2605 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, with a change of - 110 yuan from T - 1, 170 yuan from T - 5, and 195 yuan from T - 22; PS2605 closed at 35,680 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan from T - 1 and down 2,085 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Basis: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +575 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan from T - 1, down 70 yuan from T - 5, and down 245 yuan from T - 22; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was +4320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan from T - 1, down 915 yuan from T - 5, and down 1,185 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Price: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8550 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 150 yuan from T - 22; Yunnan Si4210 was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22; polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 39750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 3750 yuan from T - 5, and down 13250 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Profit: Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2506.5 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan from T - 1, down 350 yuan from T - 5, and down 265 yuan from T - 22; polysilicon enterprise profit was - 4.5 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1, down 3.1 yuan from T - 5, and down 11.8 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 560,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 191,000 tons, and industry inventory was 751,000 tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 332,000 tons [2] - Raw Material Cost: Xinjiang silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore was 230 yuan/ton; Xinjiang washed coking coal was 1475 yuan/ton; Ningxia industrial silicon was 1200 yuan/ton; Maoming petroleum coke was 1400 yuan/ton; Yangzi petroleum coke was 1960 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from T - 5 and 220 yuan from T - 22 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 18, relevant departments in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region held a symposium on intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of intellectual property protection and industrial innovation in the region's photovoltaic industry. Issues such as insufficient core technology patent reserves and increased overseas infringement risks in photovoltaic enterprises were discussed, and a "government - enterprise - research" collaborative mechanism was proposed [2][4] 3.3 Trend Strength - Industrial silicon's trend strength was 0; polysilicon's trend strength was - 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]