丙烯：基本面有支撑，趋势仍偏强，LPG：地缘风险仍存，供应扰动频发

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG faces geopolitical risks and frequent supply disruptions [2] - Propylene's fundamentals are supportive, and its trend remains strong [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market - For LPG (PG), on March 27, 2026, 2604 PG closed at 6,835 with a 0.18% daily increase, and the night - session closed at 6,701 with a - 1.96% decrease. The trading volume was 2,630, a decrease of 6,472 from the previous day, and the open interest was 2,085, a decrease of 579 [3] - For propylene (PL), 2604 PL closed at 9,086 on March 27, 2026, with a 2.16% daily increase, and the night - session closed at 9,045 with a - 0.45% decrease. The trading volume was 210, a decrease of 65 from the previous day, and the open interest was 109, a decrease of 195 [3] - Spot Market - For LPG, on March 27, 2026, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 6,100, a decrease of 150 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 659, a decrease of 368 [3] - For propylene, on March 27, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene was 8,315, a decrease of 350 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 685, a decrease of 499 [3] - Industrial Chain Start - up Rates - As of March 27, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 63.6%, a decrease of 2.03 from the previous week; the alkylation start - up rate was 38.6%, unchanged from the previous week; and the MTBE start - up rate was 69.89%, an increase of 0.38 from the previous week [3] - LPG Shipment Volumes - On March 29, 2026, the LPG shipment volume from the United States to the world was 188,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 188,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to China was 46,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous day [3] - On March 29, 2026, the LPG shipment volume from the Middle East to the world was 46,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 46,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to China was 0 [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity: 1; propylene trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On March 27, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - futures price of propane was 641 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 636 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the May CP paper - futures price of propane was 650 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting PDH device maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [9] - There are also multiple domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, such as Shangneng Petrochemical starting the whole - plant maintenance on February 5, 2026, and ending on March 31, 2026 [9]