观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market on March 30, 2026, covering various commodities such as precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions for each commodity [1][2][5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease, with a downward trend in prices and trading volume, and a decrease in ETF holdings [6]. - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform, with price and trading volume fluctuations, and an increase in ETF holdings [6]. - Platinum: Overall weak, with prices and trading volume showing certain fluctuations [26]. - Palladium: Oscillating at a low level, with price and trading volume changes [26]. Base Metals - Copper: The strong US dollar restricts price rebounds. There are geopolitical and supply - related news, and the Zambian copper production target is to triple by 2031 [10][12]. - Zinc: Running strongly, with price increases and changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices, with price increases and inventory decreases [16]. - Tin: Oscillating strongly, with price increases and changes in trading volume and inventory [19][20]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to supply disruptions. The core smelter of UAE's EGA is damaged, and the supply situation is tense [23][24]. - Nickel: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by the mining end [31]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [32]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The mining situation is fermenting, and market sentiment should be concerned [41]. - Industrial Silicon: Limited upside space [44]. - Polysilicon: In a pattern of oscillating to find the bottom [45]. - Iron Ore: There is an expectation of negotiation easing, and the ore price drops [48]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Oscillating repeatedly [52]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The spot performance is dull due to the disturbance of the sector sentiment [25]. - Manganese Silicide: The bullish sentiment is high due to the disturbance of energy information [56]. - Coke: A round of price increases is expected to be implemented this week, with wide - range oscillations [59]. - Coking Coal: Wide - range oscillations [60]. - Log: Near - term strong and far - term weak, with the positive spread widening [64]. - Para - Xylene and PTA: Short - term oscillating, and medium - term still strong [68]. - MEG: Supply is tight, with a medium - term upward trend [68]. - Synthetic Rubber: Wide - range intraday oscillations, with the price center rising [78]. - LLDPE: The operating rate continues to decline, and the raw material price corrects under negative feedback [82]. - PP: The C3 raw material fluctuates greatly, and the export scale continues [82]. - Caustic Soda: At a low valuation, with a strong - side oscillation [86]. - Glass: The original sheet price is stable [91]. - Methanol: Running strongly [94]. - Urea: The price center moves up [100]. - Styrene: Strong - side oscillations [104]. - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market [110]. - LPG: Geopolitical risks still exist, with frequent supply disturbances [115]. - Propylene: Supported by fundamentals, with an upward trend [116]. - PVC: The driving force is upward [124][125]. - Fuel Oil: The night - session continues to rebound, and it may be strong in the short term [127]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is still high, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the external market continues to correct [127]. Agricultural Products - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: Oscillating at a high level, with the cost driving still upward [142]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is recommended to wait and see [145]. - Pure Benzene: Strong - side oscillations [150]. - Palm Oil: Affected by oil prices, oscillating at a high level [155]. - Soybean Oil: The soybean series has little driving force, showing the end of RVO positive news [155]. - Soybean Meal: The overnight US soybeans closed down, and it may oscillate weakly [161]. - Soybean: The state reserve continues to sell, and the disk adjusts and oscillates [161]. - Corn: Oscillating [164]. - Sugar: Strong - side oscillations [168]. - Cotton: The domestic market lacks new drivers [172]. - Egg: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [176]. - Live Pig: The weight - reduction is less than expected, and the price center will move down again [179]. - Peanut: Pay attention to the purchase by oil mills [183]. Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The spot loading is under pressure, the 04 contract oscillates narrowly, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitics [129].