国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260330

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated March 30, 2026 [1] Industry and Product Ratings - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: Demand and cost are in a game, and steel prices fluctuate [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: Ore - end situations are fermenting, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment [2][14] - Industrial silicon: The upside space is limited [2][17] - Polysilicon: In a pattern of bottom - seeking through fluctuations [2][18] Core Views - Different commodities in the green finance and new energy fields have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, nickel is affected by ore - end cost and inventory, stainless steel by demand - cost game, lithium carbonate by ore - end situations and market sentiment, industrial silicon by limited upside space, and polysilicon by a bottom - seeking pattern [2] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,100 yuan, with a change compared to different time periods (e.g., +3,940 yuan compared to T - 5). The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 316,027 lots, showing a decrease of 96,279 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,390 yuan, and the trading volume was 177,353 lots [5] News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. ESDM has relevant production quota information, and there are also events such as mine accidents and company sanctions in Indonesia [5][6][8][9] Inventory - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, with corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest compared to different time periods. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan, showing price changes over different time intervals [14] News - Ford recalls 254,640 cars in the US. The escalation of the Middle East conflict leads to a shortage of natural gas supply in India, affecting the automotive industry [15][16] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract for industrial silicon was 8,625 yuan/ton, and for the PS2605 contract of polysilicon was 35,680 yuan/ton. There are corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, and profit for both [18] News - Xinjiang holds a symposium on intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of intellectual property protection and industrial innovation in the photovoltaic industry [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [20]