长江期货养殖产业周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Pig: The supply pressure remains high, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the pig price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year, and there may be a low - level recovery in the second half, but the price increase depends on the extent of capacity reduction [4][51]. - Egg: The demand for stocking is slowing down, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][80]. - Corn: The grain supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels. In the short - term, the price is under pressure to fluctuate at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the national spot price was 9.38 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 9.48 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week; the main pig futures contract 2605 closed at 9965 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 05 contract was - 485 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week. The national pig price continued to decline this week, and the futures price followed the spot price down, with a late - week rebound under the influence of position limits. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded over the weekend [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In December 2025, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, still 3.11 million away from the normal reserve target of 36.5 million. With the increase in fattening losses and the decline in piglet profits, and the policy requirements, the industry capacity reduction will accelerate. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is still high, and the supply will decrease marginally after July. The proportion of large - pig sales increased, and the average weight of pig sales increased slightly and was at a high level in the same period. The planned sales volume of key provincial enterprises in March increased month - on - month, and the sales pressure in April is still high [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter rate and slaughter volume continued to rise. The low price increased the slaughter volume, but the terminal fresh - sales demand was weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughterhouses decreased, and the frozen - product storage ratio increased. Consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and the frozen - product storage of slaughterhouses [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows fell significantly, the losses of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening increased, and the cost of self - breeding and self - fattening 5 - month - old fattening pigs increased. The national pig - grain ratio fell below 5:1, and policy measures such as state reserve purchases may be taken, but the current supply is still relatively loose [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - Although the short - term supply reduction by farmers provides some support, the sales pressure in April is still high, and the pig price is under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year and may recover in the second half, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - For the 05 and 07 contracts, short at high levels; for the 09, 11, and 01 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing, and breeding enterprises can hedge at profitable levels [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg futures contract 2605 closed at 3502 yuan/500 kg, up 93 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 322 yuan/500 kg, up 17 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The national egg price continued to rise slightly, and the futures price rebounded [5][80]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The number of laying hens in production is still at a high level in the same period. The number of newly - opened laying hens is stable. The number of old - hen sales increased significantly this week, but the proportion of hens to be culled is low, and the capacity reduction is slow. The inventory pressure is low in the short - term, but the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly in the medium - to - long - term [5][80]. 3.2.3 Demand End - The egg demand continued to recover slightly this week. The sales volume in the sales areas increased slightly, and the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking provided phased support. However, the low - price pork has a substitution effect on egg demand, and the terminal household consumption is still in the off - season [5][80]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - The supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the demand recovery is slow. The spot price is strong in the short - term, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve fundamentally [5][80]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to the pressure at 3550 - 3600 for the 05 contract. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the clear inflection point [5][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2380 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn futures contract 2605 closed at 2369 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday. The national corn price was adjusted narrowly at a high level, and the futures price continued to fluctuate weakly [6][112]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The supply shortage has been further alleviated, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China has continued to improve, and the grain rights have gradually transferred to traders. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has increased, and the supply pressure has been significantly relieved [6][112]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The replenishment rhythm of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and feed procurement has remained cautious. The deep - processing capacity utilization rate and consumption have increased, but the inventory is still at a low level in the same period. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the procurement intensity has slowed down, with wheat substitution [6][112]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - The corn market's trading rhythm has slowed down, the supply has become more abundant, and the demand has limited growth. In the short - term, the price is under pressure at high levels, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, operate cautiously in the range of [2340 - 2390]. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds [6][112].