Guoxin Securities·2026-03-30 05:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Outperform the Market" [5][28][32] Core Insights - Geely Automobile is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenue of 345.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 16.852 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue increase of 43.73% and a net profit increase of 1.32% [1][7][8] - The company is focusing on international expansion and high-end product strategies, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 21.41% of total revenue in 2025 [2][19] - Geely's new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rate is projected to exceed 55.8% in 2025, with total NEV sales reaching 1.688 million units [2][21] Financial Performance - In 2025, Geely's gross margin is expected to rise to 16.61%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from 2024, while the net profit margin is projected at 4.88% [2][12] - The company plans to increase its R&D investment significantly, with R&D expenses expected to grow by 69.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The sales volume for 2025 is projected to be 3.025 million units, representing a 39% year-on-year increase [1][7] Future Projections - For 2026-2028, Geely's revenue is forecasted to be 434.4 billion yuan, 495.6 billion yuan, and 584.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 21.8 billion yuan, 25.9 billion yuan, and 31.5 billion yuan [3][32] - The company is expected to maintain an upward trend in gross margin due to high-end product offerings and international sales, despite potential cost pressures from raw materials [28][29] - EPS for 2026-2028 is projected to be 2.01 yuan, 2.39 yuan, and 2.91 yuan, respectively [3][32]