蛋白数据日报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 67.7%, compared to 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian soybean production areas is continuously being released, and the freight rates have declined with the decline in crude oil, leading to a recent drop in the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans. Trump's claim of a visit to China in mid - August has boosted the appearance of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of September [13]. - The shipping in Brazil has resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed domestic arrivals, and the supply of oil mills has recovered. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After the previous restocking, the downstream buying interest is currently weak, and the basis has weakened slightly [13]. - In the later stage, the arrival of soybeans in May is sufficient. The futures market reflects the delivery pressure, and the selling pressure in South America still needs further release. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is low. It is recommended to wait for a callback to arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustments to the balance sheet of new US soybeans. In April, the domestic soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the spread between M5 - RM5 may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in different regions on March 27: Dalian was 383 (down 5), Tianjin was 323 (down 5), Rizhao was 263 (down 65), Zhangjiagang was 303 (down 25), Dongguan was 343 (down 5), Zhanjiang was 313 (up 15), and Fangcheng was 303 (down 5). The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 19 (down 153) [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 896, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 622. The USD - CNY exchange rate was 6.8698, and the crushing profit on the futures market was 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Inventory Data - The inventory data of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises are presented in the form of line charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly given [6][7][9]. 3.3 Startup and Pressing Situation - The startup rate and soybean pressing volume of national major oil mills are presented in the form of line charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly given [10][11][12].