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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market fluctuated downward before the Spring Festival due to limited macro - level support, high iron ore inventory, and high coking coal imports. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound in the black - related market. Currently, steel is in the de - stocking phase, with overall inventory normal but high in East China and high warehouse receipts. If demand does not recover beyond the seasonal norm, it may put pressure on the market [2]. - For the second - quarter market, there is suppression from the steel's own supply - demand situation, and there is also the real pressure of continuous increase in overall raw material supply. Support mainly comes from the uncertainty of raw materials. Overall volatility may be relatively limited, and the downward space at the current position is greater than the upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first quarter, the steel market first declined and then rose. As of March 27, the quarterly lines of the 05 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils were basically flat, with a quarterly fluctuation range of less than 200 yuan/ton. The raw material end had relatively larger fluctuations, with the main iron ore contract rising 2.9% quarterly, coke rising 3.5%, and coking coal rising 9.3% [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the market fluctuated downward. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 spread rose again but remained in the negative range. - The growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and the spread between social financing and M2 remained in the negative range, indicating that social investment willingness was still low [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In February, the CPI was 1.3% and the PPI was - 0.9%. - The manufacturing PMI in February was 49, a 0.3 - point decrease from the previous month. - Prices were generally recovering moderately, deflation pressure was gradually easing, and the manufacturing prosperity was still average [12]. 3.4 Steel Monthly Data - In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the pig iron output decreased by 3% year - on - year [13]. 3.5 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 27, 2026, the total output of the five - major steel products was 839,580 tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%. The total consumption was 888,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.29%. The total inventory was 1.898 million tons, a decrease of 48,390 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - After the Two Sessions, steel mills entered the resumption phase, but the current output of the five - major steel products is still lower than the same period in previous years, which may reflect the structural changes in steel products in recent years [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Steel mills generally maintained positive profits, with rebar profits better than hot - rolled coil profits, especially in North China. - The profit of electric arc furnaces using off - peak electricity fluctuated around the break - even line in the new year and is currently in a state of slight profit [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - The overall demand for the five - major steel products has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period last year, mainly contributed by cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. The sales volume of building materials is still at a low level [36]. 3.9 Real Estate - From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 23.1% [42]. - Since 2026, the sales of commercial housing and land transactions have remained weak. The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing is 17%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 4.6% [45]. 3.10 Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. - From January to February 2026, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%, and manufacturing investment growth was 3.1% [50]. 3.11 Steel Export - In 2025, steel exports reached 119 million tons, the highest in history. - From January to February 2026, steel exports were 15.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The steel export license system will restrict the practice of buying export orders, and steel exports may face a phased reduction [64]. 3.12 Steel Inventory - Rebar inventory is normal overall, but the inventory in East China is relatively high. - Hot - rolled coil inventory is generally high, and the de - stocking in East China is a bit slow [68][71]. 3.13 Basis and Spread - Rebar basis was high before the Spring Festival and then declined. It is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The high inventory in East China and the general demand recovery speed put pressure on spot de - stocking, and the basis is gradually weakening. The 10 - contract basis will continue to shrink [80]. - Hot - rolled coil basis was strong first and then weak in the first quarter, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. It is currently at a low level compared to the same period, and the high inventory exerts pressure. The space for further weakening is relatively limited [89]. - Rebar monthly spread maintained a contango structure in the first quarter and strengthened overall. It is currently around - 30. The high inventory in East China may suppress the monthly spread, and the 10 - 1 monthly spread may not strengthen in the short term. There may be a chance of a phased increase after the inventory de - stocking accelerates in the second quarter [94]. - Hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened from around - 20 to near 0 in the first quarter. The slow de - stocking of East China's spot will limit the space for the monthly spread to continue strengthening. The 10 - 1 monthly spread of hot - rolled coil strengthened in the first quarter and is currently near par. If it drops below - 20 in the second quarter, a positive arbitrage can be considered [99]. 3.14 Warehouse Receipts - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased rapidly recently, indicating that the spot sales pressure is still large under the positive basis in East China. - Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts are at the highest level in recent years and are still increasing. It may put pressure on the market after entering the delivery logic [110]. 3.15 Iron Ore and Coking Coal - Since this year, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore have been relatively high, showing a year - on - year increase. - Iron ore inventory increased significantly in the first quarter. Although there has been de - stocking recently, the absolute level is still as high as 170 million tons, the highest in the same period. Among them, the inventory of domestic iron ore is significantly high, reaching 113 million tons [113][116]. - Coking coal production rebounded rapidly after the Spring Festival and has now exceeded the same period last year. Coking coal imports remain at the highest level in the same period [118]. - The total coking coal inventory is similar to the same period last year and has rebounded recently. The upstream mine inventory has decreased recently, indicating that the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream [120][121].