日度策略参考-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Logs [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Pulp [1] - Neutral: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Diesel, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Methanol, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping on the Europe route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The external shocks on the stock index remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity due to changes in the US attitude and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the long - term, the stock index is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds are affected by multiple factors and will oscillate. [1] - Metal prices are affected by the complex situation in the Middle East, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper and aluminum prices oscillate, while zinc is bearish, and nickel and stainless steel are high - level oscillating. [1] - The prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium oscillate due to the shift of market trading narrative and the uncertain situation in the Middle East. [1] - The prices of industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical factors. [1] - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, consumption, and policies. For example, cotton prices are expected to rise in the long - term, while sugar prices have limited fluctuations. [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with some products facing supply shortages and price fluctuations. [1] - The container shipping on the Europe route is affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock index: External shocks remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. In the long - term, it is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Maintains an oscillating trend due to the complex situation in the Middle East. [1] - Aluminum: Price fluctuations intensify, and there are low - buying opportunities. [1] - Alumina: The price is supported to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the oversupply pattern. [1] - Zinc: Bearish due to weak fundamentals, and the reversal depends on European natural gas prices. [1] - Nickel: The price may oscillate at a high level, affected by policies and macro - emotions. Short - term low - buying is recommended. [1] - Stainless steel: Oscillates, and short - term low - buying opportunities should be focused on. [1] - Tin: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to potential production impacts. [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals: Prices may oscillate in the short - term due to the upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [1] - Platinum and palladium: Prices are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear. [1] - Industrial silicon: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and the inventory is being reduced. [1] - Polycrystalline silicon: It is recommended to wait and see. [1] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by factors such as demand and raw material disturbances. [1] Industrial products - Rebar: The price is mainly supported by cost, and it is treated as an oscillating market. [1] - Hot rolled coil: Supply and demand are both strong, and it is in the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to operate with an oscillating idea and consider positive arbitrage. [1] - Iron ore: The price oscillates at a high level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. [1] - Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon: Bullish due to short - term supply - demand growth and cost support. [1] - Glass and Soda ash: Oscillate, and soda ash follows the trend of glass. [1] - Coking coal: There is a risk of a sharp rise and fall, and attention should be paid to the development of the war. [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, Rapeseed oil: The far - month prices are expected to rise due to high oil prices and increased quotas. [1] - Cotton: Internationally, the inventory is tightening, and domestic prices are expected to rise in the long - term. [1] - Sugar: The supply is abundant, and the price has limited fluctuations. [1] - Corn: The price is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, but the decline range is limited. [1] - Soybeans: It is recommended to wait for the callback to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts. [1] - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. [1] - Logs: Bullish due to the rise in the external market price. [1] Energy and chemical products - Crude oil, Fuel oil: Prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with supply concerns and negotiation information disturbances. [1] - Asphalt: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively weak, and it is affected by the price of crude oil. [1] - BR rubber: The price has an upward space, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. [1] - PTA: The Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks. [1] - Ethylene glycol: The price rises due to raw material shortages. [1] - Short fiber: The price fluctuates with the cost. [1] - Methanol: The export is affected, but the domestic supply is abundant. [1] - PP, PVC, Caustic soda: Affected by the geopolitical situation and supply - demand fundamentals. [1] - LPG: The price is affected by multiple factors, with internal and external market differentiation. [1] Others - Container shipping on the Europe route: Affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies, with a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season. [1]