观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to decline due to the easing expectation of negotiations [2][4]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][8]. - The silicon ferroalloy spot performance is dull due to sector sentiment disturbances, while the manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment due to energy information disturbances [2][12]. - The first - round price increase of coke this week is expected to be implemented, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - The log market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with the positive spread widening [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Futures Data: The closing price of I2605 was 812.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.61%. The open interest decreased by 20,782 to 387,244 hands [4]. - Spot Price: Imported ore and most domestic ore prices declined, with some domestic ore prices remaining stable [4]. - Basis and Spread: Most basis and spreads decreased [4]. - News: Previous structural contradictions drove the iron ore price up, but recent negotiation easing expectations led to a weakening of the upward momentum [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures Data: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased, with open interest also decreasing [8]. - Spot Price: Some spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, while some remained stable. The billet price remained unchanged [8]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of rebar increased, and that of hot - rolled coil also increased. Some spreads changed [8]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the week of March 26. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased in early March, and production data showed a decline [9][10] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon - Futures Data: The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon futures contracts changed, with trading volume and open interest varying [12]. - Spot Price: The spot price of silicon ferroalloy decreased, and the price of manganese ore decreased. The price of silicon manganese increased [12]. - Basis and Spread: The basis and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon changed [12]. - News: There were price quotes, inventory updates, and production and procurement news in the ferroalloy market [12][14] Coke and Coking Coal - Futures Data: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [16]. - Spot Price: Some coking coal and coke prices remained stable, while some decreased [16]. - Basis and Spread: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke changed [16]. - News: The CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal auction showed certain characteristics [16] Log - Futures Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed, with different trends for different contracts [20]. - Spot Price: The prices of most log and wood square products remained stable, with only slight changes in a few prices [20]. - Basis and Spread: The basis and spreads of log futures changed [20]. - News: The government work report aimed at stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms, with GDP growth target adjustment and an increase in policy - based financial tools [22]