量化日报：量化日报金油企稳，长端修复-20260330

• The report includes a quantitative model that provides timing signals for various financial instruments, such as government bonds, stock indices, and commodities. The model outputs probabilities representing the likelihood of short-term upward movements in yields or indices[3][7][8] - The model uses a moving average (MA5) to smooth the daily timing signals. For example, the original signal for the 30-year government bond is 82.96%, while its MA5 value is 74.29%. This approach helps identify trends and reduces noise in the data[3][7] - The model evaluates multiple instruments, including 2-year and 10-year government bonds, stock indices like the CSI All A Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, and commodities such as COMEX gold and IPE crude oil. Each instrument is assigned a viewpoint, such as "bullish," "adjustment," or "neutral," based on the signal probabilities and thresholds[3][7][8] - The thresholds for the model's viewpoints are defined as follows: probabilities above 60% indicate a bullish stance, below 40% suggest bearishness, and values in between are considered neutral[8] - The model's performance is tracked over a 10-day period, with daily updates on signal probabilities and viewpoints for each instrument. For example, the 2-year government bond has maintained a "bullish" viewpoint for over 10 days, while the CSI All A Index has been in "adjustment" for 3 days[3][7][8] - The report provides detailed signal probabilities and MA5 values for each instrument, such as the CSI All A Index (83.02% original signal, 64.68% MA5) and COMEX gold (57.89% original signal, 42.29% MA5)[3][7][8]