全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, is the dominant factor affecting the market. It has led to increased inflation pressure, changes in the Fed's monetary policy expectations, and significant impacts on various asset classes [5][28]. - The market's trading logic may shift from a tightening trade to a stagflation trade, and attention should be paid to next - week's non - farm payroll data [5]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's stance has become more cautious, and the market has dispelled the expectation of rate cuts this year and is starting to price in the risk of rate hikes [5][87]. - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, but the export uncertainty has increased due to the US - Iran war, and domestic demand still requires continuous policy support [101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro脉络追踪 - The Middle - East situation is highly uncertain, with the US - Iran conflict in a stage of fighting and negotiating. The involvement of the Yemeni Houthi rebels increases the risk of further escalation, intensifying market stagflation concerns [5]. - Fed officials have become more cautious, and the market has dispelled the expectation of rate cuts this year and is starting to price in the risk of rate hikes [5]. - The A - share market lacks short - term opportunities, and long - term bonds in the domestic bond market are under pressure due to inflation concerns, while short - term bonds benefit from capital balance [5]. Global大类资产走势一览 Equity Market - This week, the global stock market's risk appetite continued to decline, with most global stocks recording losses. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, the German DAX fell 0.35%, etc.; in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.29%, etc. The MSCI global index generally declined, with the frontier market performing better than the emerging, global, and developed markets [7][9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rebounded to 100.2, up 0.67% from last week. The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly by 0.42% to 6.91. The US dollar's strength continued to suppress emerging - market currencies, with most emerging - market and developed - market currencies depreciating [11][13]. Bond Market - Inflation concerns led to a continued upward oscillation of the 10 - year government bond yields in major developed countries. In developed countries, the US Treasury yield rose 5bp to 4.44%, the UK Treasury yield rose 5bp, and the Japanese Treasury yield rose 1bp. In emerging - market countries, the Chinese Treasury yield fell to 1.82%, while the Indian and Brazilian Treasury yields rose [15][16]. Commodity Market - Under liquidity tightening, commodities consolidated. WTI crude oil rose 3.15%, and natural gas fell 1.97%. The metal sector rebounded, with LME copper rising 2.59%, LME aluminum rising 2.9%, COMEX gold falling 0.05%, and silver rising 2.89%. The domestic commodity market had mixed performance, with non - ferrous metals > black metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals > agricultural products > precious metals [24][20]. 大类资产周度展望 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to be in a weak oscillation. Short - term rate - hike expectations have slightly increased, and the Turkish sale of gold reserves has increased gold's volatility. The gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [26][28]. - Silver is in a short - term weak oscillation. The Middle - East situation continues to disrupt the market, and the silver price is testing the support at $60 per ounce [39]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is expected to be in an oscillatory state. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation has increased, and the US dollar will maintain high - level fluctuations [26]. US Stocks - The US stock market is expected to be in an oscillatory and weak state. The US - Iran conflict has increased market stagflation concerns, and before the situation eases, the US stock market is expected to operate in a weak and oscillatory manner [26][45]. A - shares - The A - share market is bearish. The A - share market is in a chaotic pricing state at this stage, and there are few short - term opportunities [26][58]. Government Bonds - In the short - term, the market will still be disturbed by risk - aversion sentiment and rising inflation. Long - term bonds should be more concerned about inflation, while short - term bonds have relatively higher safety [26][62]. 全球宏观经济数据跟踪 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts that the Q1 growth rate will drop to 2%, while the Redbook retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 6.7%, indicating that the US economy still maintains resilience [75]. - The price of Brent crude oil rose to $115 per barrel, increasing market stagflation concerns. The number of US unemployment insurance continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, and the number of initial claims was 210,000, showing that the employment market maintains resilience [79]. - Bank reserves fell to $3 trillion, the TGA account balance fell to $837.4 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale rose to $1 billion. The inter - bank market liquidity remains tight. The credit spreads of high - yield and investment - grade corporate bonds slightly declined, and the bond market is under pressure. The market has dispelled the expectation of rate cuts this year and is starting to price in the possibility of rate hikes [87]. - The US February non - farm employment unexpectedly weakened, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The inflation decline still faces significant resistance, and there is a greater risk of future inflation rebound [90]. Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - Policies to improve and stabilize the real - estate market are expected to be continuously introduced, but it is still unclear how to improve expectations under the pressure of residents' income. The real - estate market's recovery is still uncertain [97]. - As of March 27, the R001, DR001, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.39%, 1.32%, 1.32%, and 1.43%, respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.94 trillion yuan, less than last week [100]. - China's economic data in the first two months generally exceeded market expectations, with the "troika" of the economy (consumption, investment, and exports) all showing positive performance. However, the export uncertainty has increased due to the US - Iran war, and domestic demand still requires continuous policy support [101]. - The February PPI and CPI both rebounded. Input factors and the release of residents' consumption demand during the Spring Festival jointly led to price increases. The impact of the war on inflation is significant [116]. - The cumulative export growth rate from January to February was 21.8%, and the cumulative import growth rate was 19.8%, both exceeding expectations. The global manufacturing PMI increased, and China's exports to major economies generally rose [124].