有色金属行业周报（2026.3.23-2026.3.29）：地缘冲突持续扰动金属市场，短期承压不改长期看好-20260330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a long-term positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry despite short-term pressures from geopolitical conflicts and economic indicators [1][2]. Core Insights - The U.S. March PMI has decreased by 0.5 points to 51.4, indicating a slowdown in economic expansion, while input price indices have risen significantly, reflecting increased cost pressures [1][17]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is affecting global metal markets, with rising costs and supply chain disruptions becoming evident [1][2]. - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports has intensified, leading to cash flow crises for local small mining companies [3][19]. - The UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium reported significant damage to its smelting facility due to attacks, impacting production capabilities [4][20]. - Indonesia has approved export taxes on nickel, reflecting budgetary pressures exacerbated by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [5][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 2.78%, driven by strong performances in energy metals [10][11]. Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial Metals: Geopolitical tensions are increasing risks for aluminum production, with LME copper prices at $12,141.00 per ton, up 2.59% week-on-week [22][25]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold prices decreased to $4,489.70 per ounce, reflecting a 0.05% decline, while silver prices showed mixed trends [37][38]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices rose to 164,200 yuan per ton, up 11.28% week-on-week, amid tightening supply conditions [38][43]. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - Industrial Metals: Recommendations include companies with integrated operations like China Hongqiao and others in the aluminum sector [52]. - Precious Metals: Continued central bank gold purchases suggest gold remains a key asset for long-term investment [53]. - Strategic and Minor Metals: Anticipated easing of export restrictions on certain rare earths and lithium-related products may lead to price increases [53]. Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted with projected earnings per share and valuations, indicating strong growth potential [55][56].