锦欣生殖（01951）：深圳新院贡献新动能，海外或受益商保

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue of 2.649 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 5.8% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit of 209 million RMB, down 49.7% year-over-year. The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to an increase in the proportion of artificial insemination (IUI) affecting the number of egg retrieval cycles and pricing, along with zero markup on drug costs. However, there is a significant improvement expected in the second half of the year [1][5] - For 2026, the company anticipates positive revenue growth driven by the implementation of the California commercial insurance law SB729, which is expected to increase cycle numbers by 38% year-over-year in January-February, and the new Shenzhen facility expected to contribute to an 18% year-over-year increase in cycle numbers [1][2] Summary by Sections Domestic Business - The revenue in the Greater Bay Area is projected to decline by 8.8% to 420 million RMB in 2025, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-cost IUI cycles and delays in the relocation of the Shenzhen facility. However, for 2026, double-digit year-over-year growth is anticipated in the Shenzhen area due to significant capacity expansion and an expected increase in customer pricing through high-value services [2] Overseas Business - The HRC Fertility business in the U.S. is expected to benefit from the acceleration of commercial insurance coverage, with a revenue increase of 5.1% year-over-year in 2025. For 2026, both revenue and profitability are expected to improve significantly due to the SB729 law, which mandates insurance coverage for infertility diagnosis and treatment for larger companies [3] Steady Domestic Regions - The Chengdu region is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in 2026, supported by a 72.8% year-over-year increase in third-generation IVF cycles in 2025 and a rising proportion of high-value services. The Wuhan and Kunming regions are also projected to continue their steady expansion, with a target of over 5,000 cycles in 2026 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EPS for 2026-2028 is forecasted to be 0.11, 0.15, and 0.19 RMB respectively. The report assigns a 26x PE ratio for 2026, with a target price of 3.25 HKD, reflecting a premium over the average 17x PE of comparable companies [5][11]