——近期市场反馈及思考11：多空博弈，市场方向怎么选？

Group 1 - The report discusses the current market's focus on the direction of the bond market amid a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, emphasizing the need to monitor factors beyond inflation that could exceed expectations [1][7] - Key factors influencing the bond market include the recovery strength and sustainability of the macroeconomic fundamentals, which are seen as the core contradictions to watch in the next phase [4][9] - The steepening of the yield curve is attributed to a shift in long-term macro narratives, with a focus on the transition from old to new economic drivers and the easing of credit contraction pressures [10][12] Group 2 - The report suggests that the bond market environment in the first half of 2026 will differ from that of 2025, with limited downward space for bond yields and potential upward risks requiring new catalysts [16] - Investment strategies for credit bonds should focus on the 3-year maturity range, with a cautious approach to duration while seeking opportunities in the upcoming credit market [19][21] - The report highlights the anticipated recovery of perpetual bonds issuance in the second quarter, with manageable pressure expected, particularly in the context of the evolving demand dynamics [23][24] Group 3 - The report identifies the next observation window for the growth of credit bond ETFs as potentially occurring in April-May, driven by market conditions and the recent regulatory changes in the technology innovation bond sector [25][26] - The recent decline in the convertible bond market is linked to external shocks and a risk-averse approach by investors, leading to significant reductions in positions [27][28] - Future pricing logic in the convertible bond market will increasingly depend on how equities are priced in response to external shocks, with a focus on potential mispricing opportunities relative to equities [29]