2026年二季度铝策略报告-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, alumina is expected to be weak first and then stable. In April, the concentrated arrival of imported alumina and the launch of new production capacity in Guangxi will put pressure on alumina. From May onwards, the tightening of Guinea's ore - end policies will gradually take effect. After the industry's profits turn negative, the new production will slow down comprehensively, and the market is expected to stop falling. There is a risk of an over - fall rebound due to unexpected production cuts caused by domestic losses. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline first and then rise. In early April, the geopolitical impact in the Middle East is dominant, and demand has not fully recovered. With the different inventory trends at home and abroad, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets cannot be quickly reversed. In late April, the peak - season effect will gradually increase, and the inflection point of domestic inventory reduction will appear. Domestic funds are ready, and it is time for domestic prices to follow the upward trend. After May, with domestic consumption - stimulating policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, prices are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, the actual realization of downstream demand, and the dynamics of the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In the first quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated strongly. As of March 27, the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 8.9%. The Shanghai aluminum futures also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 24020 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 7.2%. The aluminum alloy futures also showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 22810 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 6.64% [6][8][10]. - In the first quarter, the spot discount of alumina widened from 59 yuan/ton to 286 yuan/ton. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum narrowed from 210 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread narrowed from 80 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Supply - Alumina: In the first quarter, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 21.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The operating capacity decreased to 86.24 million tons, and the operating rate decreased to 78.2%. Domestically, the supply of domestic ore has slightly improved, and the import of ore has continued to increase. New production capacity is about to be launched in Guangxi, while production in Shanxi and Guizhou has decreased, and manufacturers in Henan have resumed production after maintenance. Abroad, due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, Iran has made preventive production cuts, Qatar Aluminum has shut down 40% of its production, and Bahrain Aluminum has shut down three production lines [4][6]. - Electrolytic aluminum: In the first quarter, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum was 11.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The operating capacity increased to 44.3 million tons, the operating rate increased to 96.6%, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased to 64.4%. Some overseas aluminum plants have production changes. For example, the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozambique aluminum plant has been shut down due to the failure to reach an agreement on the power contract, while the 50,000 - ton idle capacity of the Mt. Holly aluminum plant is expected to resume production in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter; the Icelandic aluminum plant will resume production at the end of April and reach full production by the end of July. Domestic and Indonesian projects are ramping up production, and the daily output of electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase at a high level [4][6]. 3.3 Demand - In the first quarter, the orders in March were diluted by the Spring Festival holiday. The overall start - up was stable, but there were significant structural differences. The average start - up rate in the first quarter was 59.69%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous quarter and a 0.83% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of plates, strips, and foils was relatively weak compared with the same period last year, while the start - up of cables increased significantly, providing support. The average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI from January to February was 40.8, a decrease of 6.34 from the previous quarter and a decrease of 11.7 year - on - year. It is expected that there will be room for growth in April. The processing fees of aluminum rods have increased across the board by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the processing fees of aluminum bars have increased in Wuxi and Baotou by 90 - 130 yuan/ton and decreased in Xinjiang, Henan, Linyi, and Guangdong by 20 - 170 yuan/ton [4][6]. 3.4 Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the first quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 162,000 tons to 284,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 324,000 tons to 454,600 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 88,700 tons to 423,000 tons. - Social inventory: In the first quarter, the alumina social inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 235,000 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 689,000 tons to 1.349 million tons; the aluminum bar inventory increased by 202,500 tons to 341,500 tons [4][7]. 3.5 Capacity - Domestic alumina capacity: There are large increments in new projects, increasing the over - supply pressure. The total planned capacity of new domestic alumina projects is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons put into production in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [67]. - Overseas alumina capacity: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned capacity of new overseas alumina projects is 14.4 million tons, with 2.6 million tons put into production in 2025, 1.4 million tons in 2026, and 10.4 million tons in 2027 and beyond [68][69]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned capacity of new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons put into production in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [70]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity: There are regional differences and a lag in the rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into production in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [71]. 3.6 Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina has changed from surplus to shortage. From January to February, the production of overseas alumina and primary aluminum was 9.71 million tons and 4.8 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and 0.4% [91]. - It is expected that in the second quarter, the surplus pattern of alumina will intensify; after the marginal reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory, the supply - demand pattern will improve [92][93].