铁合金策略季报2026年二季度

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese - silicon, the Middle - East situation disturbs market sentiment, cost support is strong, and the upside space depends on the implementation of emission reduction. The short - term fundamentals have some upward support, and the manganese - silicon futures price in the second quarter is expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations [6]. - For silicon - iron, the news stimulates market sentiment, but the driving force for the fundamental resonance to rise is limited. The silicon - iron futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the second quarter, and external situation changes, Middle - East geopolitical trends, and the overall sentiment of the black market all have certain impacts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - In the first quarter, the prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures oscillated upward, and the increase of manganese - silicon futures price was greater than that of silicon - iron. From December 29, 2025, to March 27, 2026, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract increased from 5,862 yuan/ton to 6,580 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 718 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 12.25%; the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract increased from 5,676 yuan/ton to 6,012 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 336 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 5.92% [9][13]. 3.2 Manganese - Silicon Supply - The weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased month - on - month. On March 27, 2026, the weekly output was 191,660 tons, with a daily average output of 27,380 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% [28][31]. - Manganese - based industries issued an independent emission reduction plan. The monthly emission reduction of the Inner Mongolia ferroalloy industry is expected to be 94,600 tons, the annual emission reduction of the Ningxia ferroalloy industry is expected to be 66,250 tons, the monthly emission reduction of the national manganese - based ferroalloy industry is 221,000 tons, and the annual cumulative emission reduction is 2.652 million tons [5]. - The startup rates of manganese - silicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased week - on - week [36]. - Ningxia's manganese - silicon output in February hit a new low in the same period in recent years [39]. 3.3 Manganese - Silicon Demand - The weekly demand of manganese - silicon by sample enterprises continued to increase, but the absolute value was still low. On March 27, 2026, the demand was 118,832 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,179 tons and a growth rate of 5.48% [43][44]. - The output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the proportion of rebar in the total output of the five major steel products showed a gradually decreasing trend. On March 27, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 197.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13.48 tons and a growth rate of 7.31% [45][49]. 3.4 Manganese - Silicon Inventory - The inventory of manganese - silicon sample enterprises increased significantly year - on - year. As of March 27, 2026, the total inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 372,800 tons, an increase of 212,300 tons compared with September 5, 2025 [50][53]. - The average available days of manganese - silicon inventory in March 2026 were 17.08 days, an increase of 0.47 days compared with the same period last year [5]. 3.5 Manganese Ore - The inventory of manganese ore at ports was higher than the same period last year. As of March 20, 2026, the total inventory of manganese ore at ports was 4.745 million tons, a quarterly increase of 207,000 tons [57][59]. - The prices of manganese ore increased significantly. From December 23, 2025, to March 27, 2026, the price of South African Mn36.5% manganese ore increased from 35 yuan/dry ton degree to 43.8 yuan/dry ton degree, with a quarterly increase of 9.3 yuan/dry ton degree and a growth rate of 27.0% [63][66]. 3.6 Manganese - Silicon Options - The historical volatility of manganese - silicon options rebounded from a low level [67]. - The put - call ratio of the trading volume of manganese - silicon options oscillated at a low level [70]. 3.7 Silicon - Iron Supply - The weekly output of silicon - iron decreased month - on - month and was at a medium - low level in recent years. On March 27, 2026, the weekly output was 102,100 tons, with a daily average output of 14,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,600 tons and a growth rate of 3.65% [73][75]. - The national silicon - iron output in February decreased month - on - month, and the output in Qinghai decreased significantly [81]. 3.8 Silicon - Iron Demand - The weekly demand of silicon - iron increased. On March 27, 2026, the demand was 19,290.2 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,784.4 tons and a growth rate of 10.19% [91][92]. - The apparent consumption of silicon - iron in February 2026 was 376,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39,000 tons and a decline rate of 9.35% [93][94]. 3.9 Silicon - Iron Inventory - The inventory of silicon - iron sample enterprises decreased continuously month - on - month, and the absolute value was low. As of March 27, 2026, the total inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 54,950 tons, a quarterly decrease of 5,000 tons [100][102]. - The average available days of silicon - iron inventory in March 2026 were 16.82 days, an increase of 0.56 days compared with the same period last year and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9 days [8]. 3.10 Silicon - Iron Options - The historical volatility of silicon - iron options was still at a relatively low level [107]. - The put - call ratio of the position and trading volume of silicon - iron options rebounded slightly from a low level [110].