豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trends of both soybean meal and soybean oil futures are in a wide - range oscillation stage. For soybean meal, factors such as high domestic oil mill operating rates, expected Brazilian harvests, and weak downstream demand are balanced by geopolitical risks and local supply shortages. For soybean oil, the global supply of soybeans is abundant, but geopolitical tensions and short - term supply contractions provide support [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal futures are in a wide - range oscillation stage. The 12th - week data shows that the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 1.9905 million tons, the operating rate is 54.81%, and the soybean meal inventory is 670,500 tons. The high domestic oil mill operating rate, combined with the stable expectation of a Brazilian harvest and subsequent increased arrivals, will lead to a looser supply in the long - term. Weak downstream demand and a slow procurement rhythm also contribute to this. However, geopolitical risks and local supply shortages due to delayed arrivals or maintenance support the spot price [7]. - Attention points: South American weather changes, US tariff policies, and domestic aquaculture demand [7]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Short - term spot tight balance and cost support boosted prices, but weak demand and long - term supply pressure limited the increase. The soybean meal futures price was expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The daily trend of soybean meal futures is in a downward channel, and the funds are relatively bullish. Short - term spot shortages support prices, but long - term supply pressure and weak demand limit the upside. Attention should be paid to the operating rhythm of oil mills and the actual arrival of soybeans [11]. - Variety diagnosis: The main force is relatively bullish, with a long - short flow of 64.6. The main funds are slightly out - flowing, with a capital energy of - 30.7. The long - short divergence is 91.9, indicating a high risk of a market change [15]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][23][28]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 12th week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 378,200 tons. The Brazilian soybean harvest is a foregone conclusion, and the global soybean supply is abundant, which is a long - term negative factor. However, geopolitical tensions and short - term supply contractions due to maintenance in some domestic oil mills provide support [35]. - Attention points: US biodiesel policies, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [35]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The short - term trend of soybean oil futures focused on crude oil fluctuations and policy expectations, maintaining a high - level oscillation pattern between cost support and high - price demand suppression [38]. - This week's strategy suggestion: In the game between short - term supply contraction and increased mid - term arrival pressure, the soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [38]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, and weekly operating rate. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [48][55][57][64].