固收周报：流动性宽松延续，超长端领涨债市-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, bond yields oscillated downward, showing the characteristics of "long - end decline and curve flattening". The main drivers were the central bank's precise liquidity injection and the rise in risk - aversion sentiment due to geopolitical risks. The bond market is in a pattern where support and constraints coexist. On one hand, the improvement in industrial enterprise profits, the continuation of production resilience, and the marginal recovery of external demand, along with the high - level supply of government bonds, impose phased constraints on the decline of interest rates. On the other hand, the loose monetary policy and the stable capital interest rate provide support for the bond market. In the future, attention should be paid to the rhythm of government bond issuance, marginal changes in central bank monetary policy operations, geopolitical developments, and changes in the Fed's monetary policy path [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Highlights - Bond yields oscillated downward last week, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 0.5BP to 1.252%, the 10 - year Treasury yield falling 1.2BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield declining 4BP to 2.35%. The long - end decline was greater than the short - end, narrowing the 10Y - 1Y term spread by 0.8BP to 56.5%. The main reasons for the decline in bond yields were the central bank's precise liquidity injection and the rise in risk - aversion sentiment due to geopolitical risks [3] 3.2 Fundamental Aspect - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size improved significantly, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total profits from January to February reaching 15.2%, 14.6 percentage points higher than the previous value. High - frequency data showed that production was moderately recovering, with different industries' production start - up rates showing mixed trends. Consumption and prices were weak, while exports showed marginal improvement. Overall, the pattern of strong production and weak demand continued, and the economic recovery momentum was moderately repaired, which imposed phased constraints on the bond market [4] 3.3 Policy Aspect - Multiple tools were used in a coordinated manner to precisely maintain liquidity at the end of the quarter. Open - market operations flexibly hedged to maintain short - term liquidity. MLF was over - renewed to stabilize expectations, with a net currency injection of 500 billion yuan. The bill market was in a balanced supply - demand state, providing neutral support to the capital side. Overall, monetary policy operations remained flexible and appropriate, maintaining a reasonable and abundant liquidity environment [5] 3.4 Supply Aspect - Government bond issuance continued to accelerate, and the bond supply pressure remained high. The overall bond market issuance scale reached 1.96 trillion yuan last week, with a net financing of 238.5 billion yuan. Interest - rate bonds were the main supply force, and the net financing of credit bonds improved marginally. Government bonds, including national bonds and local government bonds, showed significant growth [6] 3.5 Capital Aspect - The capital side remained in a loose and balanced state, and the cross - quarter pressure was generally controllable. Term interest rates showed structural differentiation, with overnight capital interest rates slightly declining and 7 - day interest rates rising due to end - of - quarter demand. Although the end - of - quarter factors had a certain impact on short - term capital prices, the capital price center remained within a reasonable range [6]