利率：非银接力银行，继续做多？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2026, banks have been the main buyers of treasury bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit in the secondary market. Public funds are currently cautious, with low durations and a decreasing proportion of interest - rate purchases [1]. - The bank's liability side remains stable, supported by the growth of non - financial enterprises and non - banking institutions' deposits, while there is a certain loss of household deposits. The strong stock market performance has also promoted the growth of non - banking deposits [2]. - Although strengthening inter - bank self - discipline is beneficial for banks in the long - term, in the short - term, the partial loss of inter - bank deposits and the decline in liability stability may affect banks' asset - side behavior [3]. - There is uncertainty about whether non - banks can take over from banks to continue bullish operations. Non - banks are more cautious due to many disturbing factors, and the market rhythm and direction may change. Although non - banks have limited short - selling chips and there are opportunities for bullish band operations, the increasing supply in the primary market requires caution in April [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - banks to Take Over from Banks: Continue to Go Long? 3.1.1 Most Funds are Cautious, and Banks Become the Market Main Force - In 2026, banks are the main buyers of treasury bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit in the secondary market. Large - scale banks have a cumulative net purchase of 6450.9 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 2400.7 billion yuan in certificates of deposit in the secondary market. Small and medium - sized banks mainly buy policy financial bonds within 10 years, treasury bonds over 20 years, and more than 1 trillion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit [14]. - Banks also have a large amount of primary - market bond underwriting. The strong correlation between the primary - market issuance of 50 - year treasury bonds and banks' secondary - market sales indicates that the net secondary - market purchases underestimate banks' actual buying power [15]. - Public funds are currently cautious. Since early March, due to the unstable Middle - East situation, the market has gradually reduced durations, which have returned to the level before the Spring Festival. The trading enthusiasm of public funds in 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds has declined, and banks have become a stabilizing force in the market [17][19]. 3.1.2 The Stability of Banks' Liability Side Exceeds Expectations - Although there were concerns about the loss of time deposits in the first half of 2026, the bank's liability system remains stable. From December 2025 to January 2026, the year - on - year deposit growth rate of large - scale banks increased significantly, partly due to actual deposit growth and partly due to the low - base effect caused by the loss of non - bank inter - bank deposits [22]. - In terms of new deposits, non - financial enterprises and non - banking institutions are the main growth drivers, while household deposits have a certain loss. From January to February, household deposits increased less by 890 billion yuan, non - financial enterprises increased more by 1055.5 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased less by 390 billion yuan, and non - banking financial institutions increased more by 1120 billion yuan, with a total net increase of 520 billion yuan [29]. - Large - scale banks' deposit attractiveness has marginally increased. In January and February, the new household deposits of small and medium - sized banks were relatively low, while large - scale banks performed better. In terms of enterprise deposits, large - scale banks also showed better performance [30]. - The strong stock market performance has promoted the growth of non - bank deposits. Historically, non - bank deposits are strongly correlated with stock market performance. From December 2025 to February 2026, the good stock market performance drove the growth of banks' non - bank deposits [35]. 3.1.3 Will Banks' Buying Power Weaken? - Media reports suggest that the self - discipline management of inter - bank deposit interest rates is being further strengthened. According to the new requirements, the proportion of inter - bank current deposits with an interest rate higher than 1.4% of the 7 - day reverse repurchase (OMO) policy rate should not exceed 10% - 20% at the end of the quarter [37]. - The record - high bank deposit - loan gap may reflect the increasing pressure on banks' interest spreads. As of February 2026, the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions reached a record high. In the long - term, strengthening inter - bank self - discipline is beneficial for reducing banks' liability costs and stabilizing net interest spreads. However, in the short - term, the partial loss of inter - bank deposits and the decline in liability stability may affect banks' asset - side behavior [38][45]. - Large - scale banks have abundant funds at the beginning of the year. They conduct short - term reverse repurchases and buy certificates of deposit. They also buy a large amount of treasury bonds in the secondary market, which has been an important factor driving down the bond market. However, the impact of strengthened inter - bank supervision on banks' liability sides remains to be seen. Non - banks are more cautious, and the market rhythm and direction may change. Although non - banks have limited short - selling chips and there are opportunities for bullish band operations, the increasing supply in the primary market requires caution in April [57]. 3.2 Market Review: Many Overseas Disturbances - Geopolitical conflicts have affected the bond market. On March 23, 2026, due to the expected escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the bond market was under pressure. After that, news about the US - Iran situation and the central bank's MLF operation also affected the bond market. This week, the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 1.4 BP, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 1.65 BP [59][60][61]. 3.3 High - Frequency Tracking: Rising Oil Prices, High Probability of PPI Turning Positive in March 3.3.1 Price Index: Rising Oil Prices, High Probability of PPI Turning Positive - Consumer prices: Pork prices continue to decline, while fruit and vegetable prices are stable. - Producer prices: Oil prices continue to rise. Based on the prices of five commodities in March, the year - on - year PPI in March is expected to turn positive, with an expected value of 2.39%, and the PPI for means of production is expected to be 3.39% [63][64]. 3.3.2 Production: Relatively Stable The production indicators such as crude steel daily output, key power plant coal consumption, PX operating rate, and steel enterprise blast furnace operating rate show relatively stable production [86][87]. 3.3.3 Consumption: Still Weak - Liquor prices are flat, automobile consumption has slightly recovered, and postal express volume is slightly higher than the same period [95]. 3.3.4 Investment: Still Weak Overall - Real estate: There is a certain "spring market" in the second - hand housing market, but land transfer remains weak. - Infrastructure: Asphalt and cement production are at relatively low levels [104]. 3.3.5 Imports and Exports: Rising Freight Rates The freight rates for imports and exports are rising [108]. 3.3.6 Inventory: Marginal Decline in Rebar and Copper The inventories of rebar and copper are showing a marginal decline [114]. 3.3.7 Transportation: At a High Level in the Same Period The coastal container freight rate index and other transportation - related indicators are at a high level compared to the same period [118].