利率债周报：通胀担忧缓和叠加股市低迷，债市有所回暖-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market generally showed a warm trend, with the yield curve becoming flatter. On March 23, the bond market continued to be under pressure due to the unclear Middle - East geopolitical situation and the continuous fermentation of inflation expectations. However, starting from March 24, as overseas released signals of the easing of the US - Iran conflict, inflation concerns subsided, and the domestic stock market was sluggish. The bond market recovered, and the long - term bond yields declined significantly. For short - term bonds, although the capital market remained loose last week, the capital price rose slightly during the tax period, limiting the downward space of short - term bond yields, and the spread between long - and short - term bonds narrowed [2]. - This week (the week of March 30), the bond market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend. The domestic monetary policy will focus on maintaining sufficient liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. The capital market is expected to remain loose, which will support short - term bonds. However, the concerns about imported inflation brought by the Middle - East situation and the cooling of the expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will continue to suppress the bond market sentiment, making the long - end trend more entangled. Considering the expected continued sluggish performance of the stock market and the market's dull reaction to geopolitical conflicts, the bond market is expected to continue its relatively strong and volatile trend this week, but attention should be paid to whether the manufacturing PMI and price sub - indices announced on Tuesday this week will have unexpected performance [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market generally showed a warm trend last week, and the long - term bond yields declined significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract rose 0.00% cumulatively throughout the week. On the last Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.27bp lower than that of the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 0.50bp lower than that of the previous Friday, with the term spread narrowing [3]. - On March 23, the bond market was generally weak and volatile. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.17bp. Most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms closed down, with the 10 - year main contract down 0.09%. - On March 24, the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.44bp. Most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms closed up, with the 10 - year main contract up 0.02%. - On March 25, the bond market was warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.39bp. The closing performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms was divergent, and the 10 - year main contract remained flat. - On March 26, the bond market continued to be warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.39bp. All the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms closed up, with the 10 - year main contract up 0.08%. - On March 27, the bond market was slightly warm. The long - end yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.22bp. The closing of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms was mixed, with the 10 - year main contract down 0.01% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 102 interest - rate bonds were issued, the same as the previous week. The issuance volume was 664.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 406.6 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 205.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 570.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volume and net financing amount of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds all decreased compared with the previous week [13]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. Two Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.24 times; 25 policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 4.72 times; 75 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 17.40 times [14]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events On March 25, the central bank carried out a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term. Since 450 billion yuan of MLF matured in March, the MLF continuation in that month increased by 50 billion yuan, which was the 13th consecutive month of increase. The main reason is that the issuance scale of government bonds in March and the following period will continue to be at a high level. At the same time, the issuance of 800 billion yuan of new policy - financial instruments announced in March this year will continue to drive large - scale bank supporting loans in March and later, and the issuance of policy - financial bonds will also increase significantly, which will bring a tightening effect on the capital market to a certain extent. Therefore, the central bank needs to continuously inject medium - and long - term liquidity into the market through the combination of various policy tools to guide the capital market to be in a relatively stable and sufficient state [16]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, most of the high - frequency data last week showed an upward trend. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily average molten iron output continued to rise, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants continued to decline. - On the demand side, the BDI index fluctuated slightly downward last week, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase. - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to decline last week, while most commodity prices rose. Among them, the prices of copper and crude oil both increased, and the price of rebar slightly declined [17]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 281.9 billion yuan. - The R007 and DR007 both increased last week, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks increased slightly, the national - share direct discount rates at all terms continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to decrease, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market first decreased and then increased, with an overall slight decline [29][32][34][37].