螺纹热卷早报20260330-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent rebound is mainly driven by the increasing expectation of rising raw material costs, and the market will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short - term. It is advisable to participate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Information - Futures Prices: On March 27, 2026, RB2605 was at 3124 (down 4 from the previous day), RB2610 at 3151 (down 7), HC2605 at 3299 (down 6), and HC2610 at 3310 (down 3). The night - session closing prices were RB2605 at 3126, RB2610 at 3156, HC2605 at 3294, and HC2610 at 3309. The 5 - 10 spread for rebar was - 30 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils was - 15 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 168 yuan for the May contract and 153 yuan for the October contract [1][2] - Spot Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan (down 10), and Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coils were 3290 yuan. On March 27, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan (down 20), and on the weekend, the ex - factory price of Hebei Tangshan common billet rose 10 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan [1][2][3] 3.2 Important News - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iranian steel plants, expected to create a rigid supply gap of 500 - 550 million tons/year, with the most prominent gaps in plates, billets, and long - products [2] - On March 27, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports in China was 66.50 million tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous day; the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 9.44 million tons, a 5.9% increase from the previous day [2] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a 1.25 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase; the daily average pig iron output was 231.09 million tons, a 2.94 - million - ton increase [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.51 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [2] - On March 28, the single - day online signing volume of second - hand houses (including commercial properties) in Shanghai reached 1585 units, setting a new high in the past 5 years [2] 3.3 Market Fundamentals - The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly this period, consumption continued to recover, and the total inventory continued to decline, with the overall level slightly higher than the same period last year [3] - In terms of product structure, the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased; the output of rebar shrank, demand continued to recover, and the inventory pressure was not significant [3] 3.4 Valuation and Market Outlook - After the cost of the long - process steelmaking increased, it gradually approached the valley - electricity cost, which had a prominent impact on the marginal supply of rebar. The valley - electricity cost was under continuous pressure, and the current supply - demand was in a weak balance [3] - The trading strategy is to expect a shock market [3]