铁矿石早报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of iron ore is supported by the improvement in demand after the Two Sessions, a slight increase in molten iron production, and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iran conflict. However, the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background restricts the upward movement of prices. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On March 27, 2026, for iron ore futures, i2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, i2609 closed at 790 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan [2] - Spot: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 ( - 8) yuan/ton, the standard - equivalent (warehouse) price was 815 yuan, and the best - deliverable Newman powder's warehouse - receipt equivalent (warehouse) price was 789 yuan [2] - Contract Price Changes: For contract 12701, the price on March 27, 2026, was 769.5, up 2.0 from March 26; for 12605, it was 812.0, down 5.0; for 12609, it was 788.0, up 0.5 [1] 3.2 Inventory and Shipping Data - Inventory: On March 27, 2026, the total iron ore inventory was 17000 (down 98 from March 20), Australian ore inventory was 8315 (down 8), Brazilian ore inventory was 5030 (down 44), and trader inventory was 11285 (down 53) [1] - Shipping: Australian shipments to the world on March 20 were 2458 (up 74 from March 13), Brazilian shipments were 572 (down 23), and Australian shipments were 1909 (up 96) [1] 3.3 Important News - On March 27, the US and Israel attacked Iranian steel plants, expected to create a rigid supply gap of 500 - 550 tons/year, with the most prominent gaps in plates, billets, and long - products [2] - On March 27, the national main - port iron ore trading volume was 66.50 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 9.44 tons, a 5.9% increase [2] - Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03% (up 1.25 percentage points), the steel - mill profitability rate was 43.29% (up 0.87 percentage points), and the daily average molten iron output was 231.09 tons (up 2.94 tons) [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 58.87% (up 2.3 percentage points from the previous week and 3.87 percentage points from the same period last year), and the average operating rate was 68.82% (up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.51 percentage points from the same period last year) [2] - On March 28, the single - day online signing volume of second - hand houses (including commercial properties) in Shanghai reached 1585 units, setting a new high in the past 5 years [3]