2026年2月图说债市月报：避险情绪升温债券收益率下行，多空交织下把握结构性机会-20260330

Key Insights - The report indicates a significant contraction in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 685.49 billion, down 672.33 billion from the previous month, and a net financing amount of 71.1 billion, a decrease of 351.53 billion [4][43] - The average issuance rates for various credit bond types mostly declined, with the range between 3 to 21 basis points, except for AAA-rated short-term bonds which saw an increase of 8 basis points [4][45] - The report highlights a mixed performance in credit risk, with the rolling default rate for February at 0.18%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous month, and no new defaulting entities reported [4][20][22] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0, indicating contraction, and new orders index dropping to 45.3, reflecting reduced demand [4][33] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with a net liquidity injection of 829.5 billion through various operations, including reverse repos and MLF, contributing to a generally loose funding environment [4][34] - The report suggests that the bond market is expected to continue in a "low interest rate, high volatility, and range-bound" pattern, with limited potential for a one-sided trend due to geopolitical risks and supply pressures [4][9] - The credit risk assessment shows that three entities had their ratings upgraded due to strong support capabilities and improved profitability, while three others were downgraded due to declining profitability and increased financial pressure [4][23]