贵金属周报：中东冲突延续，金银延续调整-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold and silver, the continuous conflict in the Middle East has kept crude oil prices high, leading to an increase in the market's inflation expectations for the US. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect of high oil prices on the economy is gradually emerging. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy in March, and the market expects less than one interest rate cut this year. The US dollar index is running strongly, and gold and silver may continue to be under pressure for adjustment. As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut changes, gold and silver may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - For platinum and palladium, there is limited short - term fundamental data. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, while palladium is in a relatively surplus pattern. In addition, the guidance of the gold price should be noted in the medium term. This week, they may follow the weak trend of the gold price, and the platinum - palladium ratio may continue to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: From March 20 to March 27, 2026, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in various markets generally declined. For example, the price of London gold dropped from $4562.55 per ounce to $4504.15 per ounce, and the price of London silver dropped from $72.37 per ounce to $67.795 per ounce [8]. - Inventory Changes: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 340,747 ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4,397,891 ounces, NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 25,033 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged [8]. - Market News: The US adjusted its sanctions policy on Venezuela's key mineral sector, allowing certain investment and operation activities. From January to February 2026, China's silver ingot exports increased by 9.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 707.7% year - on - year. China's silver concentrate imports decreased slightly by 1.2% year - on - year. Turkey's gold reserves decreased significantly in two consecutive weeks. The gold - platinum ratio has reached about 2.4, attracting investors to turn to platinum. Russia will restrict gold exports from May 1, and some central banks may increase their gold purchases in 2026 [10][11]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Spot Basis: Analyze the spot basis of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [13][16]. - Ratio: Analyze the relevant ratios, but specific content is not detailed in the text [19]. - Market Positions: Analyze the market positions of gold and silver, as well as overseas market positions, with data from Wind [21][24]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: Analyze the futures warehouse receipts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [25][28]. - ETF Positions: Analyze the ETF positions of gold and silver, with data from Wind [30].