周报20260330：铁水续增，原料支撑仍存-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas mainstream iron ore mine shipments have significantly declined due to factors such as weather, but the arrival volume has temporarily increased. Iron ore demand shows that hot metal production continues to rise, while the port clearance volume has decreased. Although the supply contraction supports the iron ore price, the high port inventory limits its upward space. [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, with the overall coking coal mine operating rate rising and high Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side shows an increase in both supply and demand, and the downstream coking enterprise profits have shrunk. There is still rigid demand support for coking coal and coke, and the first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented soon, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate within a limited range. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the crude oil price has fallen after a sharp rise, weakening the support for coking coal and coke. The futures market faces pressure, but the spot market has a strong willingness to hold prices. The price of prime coking coal has been raised, and iron ore has been oscillating at a high level. [8] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The iron ore price index is 109.8 (down 1.36% month - on - month, up 5.13% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil are 1875.1 tons (down 26.7% month - on - month, down 27.3% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2426.3 tons (up 6.81% month - on - month, up 8.14% year - on - year). [15] Demand - The daily hot metal production is 231.09 tons (up 2.94 tons month - on - month, down 6.19 tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume at 45 ports is 313.17 tons (down 2.43% month - on - month, down 0.01% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises is 31.55 days (down 1.81% month - on - month, up 1.64% year - on - year). [20] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports is 17000.31 tons (down 0.57% month - on - month, up 17.50% year - on - year). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8978.56 tons (down 0.61% month - on - month, down 1.45% year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises is 24.04 days (up 0.67% month - on - month, down 1.15% year - on - year). [25] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines is 89.16% (up 0.64% month - on - month, up 2.29% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants is 34.78% (up 5.36% month - on - month, down 0.17% year - on - year). The average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 17.94 tons (up 5.88% month - on - month, up 90.40% year - on - year). [30] Coking Enterprises - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is +21 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 74 yuan/ton year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 74.86% (up 0.74% month - on - month, up 4.12% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.4% (down 0.07% month - on - month, down 1.44% year - on - year). [37] Coking Coal Inventory - The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 885.12 tons (up 4.47% month - on - month, up 21.26% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.23 tons (up 1.05% month - on - month, up 2.59% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory at ports is 269.44 tons (up 1.69% month - on - month, down 25.70% year - on - year). [43] Coke Inventory - The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 49.78 tons (down 5.09% month - on - month, down 28.57% year - on - year). The coke inventory of steel mills is 691.67 tons (up 0.51% month - on - month, up 3.52% year - on - year). The coke inventory at ports is 216.11 tons (up 8.53% month - on - month, up 0.46% year - on - year). [49] Spot Price - The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month, up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year). The price of low - sulfur prime coking coal in Shanxi is 1580 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, up 310 yuan/ton year - on - year). [52] 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is oscillating at a high level, and the spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 is narrowing. [54]