铜铝周报：中东冲击延续，铜铝走势分化-20260330

Report Title - "Middle East Impact Continues, Copper and Aluminum Prices Diverge - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2026.03.30" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Copper: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, European and American stock markets are under pressure to adjust, and the overall inventory is high. Copper prices may continue to adjust this week. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [90,000, 98,000] [4]. - Aluminum: The macro - pressure from high oil prices is unfavorable to non - ferrous metals, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [23,500, 25,000] [4]. - Alumina: The supply - demand pressure of alumina remains, but the Middle East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have a certain impact on market expectations. Pay attention to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2,800, 3,100] [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Weekly Market Data (2026.3.20 - 2026.3.27): For copper, the average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 95,950 yuan/ton to 95,690 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of CU increased from 94,740 yuan/ton to 95,930 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 23,870 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of AL decreased from 24,020 yuan/ton to 23,935 yuan/ton. For alumina, the spot price index increased from 2,752 yuan/ton to 2,776 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of A0 decreased from 3,041 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [8]. - Weekly News: Chile's Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its copper production cost by about 5%, and sets the 2026 copper production target range at 133 - 136 million tons. Iran attacked two aluminum production facilities in the Middle East, exacerbating the already tense global supply situation. The San Ciprian electrolytic aluminum plant of Alcoa has restored 90% of its production capacity and plans to reach full - load production by mid - year [11]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas Market: The Middle East conflict continues. Before the attack, the international aluminum spot market had a high premium. The London Exchange aluminum price premium was around $60/ton, reaching a 19 - year high. The US aluminum ingot spot premium also remained at a historical high of over $2,293/ton [13]. - This Week's Macroeconomic Forecast: Key events and data include the Middle East war situation, China's March official manufacturing PMI, the US March ISM manufacturing index, the US February durable goods orders final value, the US March non - farm payrolls change, and the US March unemployment rate [14]. 03. Non - Ferrous Metals Market Analysis 1.1 Copper - Spot Market: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - Futures Market: Presented the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures from 2022 to 2026 [20]. - Overseas Market: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - Market Inventory: Presented the historical trends of LME copper inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, COMEX copper inventory, and Shanghai bonded area copper inventory from 2022 to 2026 [26]. - Downstream Consumption: From March 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate will increase by 0.59 percentage points to 83.76% this week [28]. 1.2 Aluminum - Domestic Market: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory from 2022 to 2026 [31]. - Futures Market: Presented the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions from 2022 to 2026 [34]. - Overseas Market: Presented the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory from 2022 to 2026 [37]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of March 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 64% month - on - month, but the overall level was still lower than the same period last year [39]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: As of March 26th, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 24,300 yuan/ton. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [43]. - Cost and Profit: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials from 2025 to 2026 [45]. 1.3 Alumina - Spot Market: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - Futures Market: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - Market Supply and Demand: As of March 26th, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89 million tons, and the operating rate was 75.14%. The demand for alumina slightly increased [55]. - Cost and Profit: As of the week of March 27th, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,817.16 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 41.75 yuan/ton [56].