股指周报：外围拖累不断，等待放量机会-20260330

Report Information - Report Title: "Peripheral Drag Continues, Awaiting Volume Breakout Opportunity - Stock Index Weekly Report 2026.03.30" [1] - Author: Li Weihong from the Digital Finance Department - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 68599157, Email liwh_qh@ccnew.com, Investment Consulting Number Z0017812 Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Strategically, there's no need to be overly pessimistic about A - shares as China's long - term economic development provides solid support, and domestic capital market supervision and macro - decision - making focus on market stability. The US being in a passive situation in the Middle East objectively creates a more favorable strategic environment for China [2]. - Before the holiday, the four major indices were mainly in a volatile adjustment. The CSI 300 fell 1.41% weekly, the SSE 50 fell 1.61%, the CSI 500 fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.48%. The average daily trading volume of the four major indices decreased slightly compared to the previous week [2]. - The cumulative balance of margin trading purchases decreased by 4.577 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the margin trading balance dropped to 2.59 trillion yuan [2]. - If there's sudden bad news leading to a double - bottom in the index, it's likely a medium - term relative low with more opportunities than risks. The primary goal of the Shanghai Composite Index is to fill the gap. April is a period for market layout after risk release in March. If the market can hold the recent bottom - oscillating range with increased volume on Monday, the probability of short - term stabilization is high [2]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Weekly Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%, the SSE 50 fell 1.61%, the CSI 300 fell 1.41%, the STAR 50 fell 1.33%, the CSI 500 fell 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.68%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.48%. The trading volume of some indices decreased, such as the CSI 300 with a 4.10% decrease [8]. - Domestic Data: Analyzed the valuation levels of the four major indices, volatility, and basis of stock index futures, and showed the trends of domestic and foreign indices and their volatility [10][14][20]. 02 Macro - analysis - Domestic Macro: Covered GDP growth rate, state - owned industrial enterprise profits, social consumption, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment in different sectors, manufacturing PMI, price indices, import and export data, as well as high - frequency data related to industry and real estate [26][30][32]. - Foreign Macro: Included data on the US's new non - farm employment, inflation, unemployment rate, and manufacturing and service PMI, as well as the eurozone's inflation and PMI [60][62]. 03 Market Sentiment - Funding Aspect: The short - and long - term capital costs remained stable. The net currency injection in open - market operations and SHIBOR rates were presented [70]. - Sentiment Aspect: The buying interest of domestic funds declined slightly. Data such as two - market trading volume, public fund net value, share, number, and margin trading balance were shown [75]. This Week's Important Market Information - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently adjusted their deposit interest rates, with a downward trend expected to continue. Long - term product rates may further decline, and short - term product proportion may increase [80]. - Geopolitically, the global market is watching the Middle East situation, and the G7 will discuss releasing strategic oil reserves. Macro - level data such as China's March official PMI and the US's March non - farm data will be released. In the industrial field, China's photovoltaic export tax rebate will be cancelled on April 1, semiconductor and passive component companies have raised prices, and many star companies will disclose their earnings [81].