Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) [2][7][12] Core Insights - The company has lowered its target price to HKD 30.10, reflecting a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of HKD 21.88 [1][7] - Despite a disappointing performance in 2025, the company is committed to increasing shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio rising from 48% in 2024 to 55% in 2025, and a target of at least 58% in 2026 [6][7] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, global expansion, and high-end brand strategies to improve operational efficiency and mitigate margin pressures [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 2-4%, leading to a 10-11% reduction in net profit forecasts for 2026-27 [6][7] - The expected revenue for 2026 is RMB 313.63 billion, with a net profit of RMB 20.30 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% and 6.6% respectively [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline to 25.9% in 2026, down from 27.8% in the previous forecast [8] Market and Operational Insights - Domestic market demand in China showed weakness in Q4 2025, with a 15% year-on-year decline due to subsidy reductions [6][7] - The high-end brand Casarte achieved double-digit growth, while the Leader brand focused on younger consumers with a 30% increase [6] - Internationally, revenue from overseas markets is expected to grow by 8.3% to RMB 155.58 billion in 2025, with significant growth in emerging markets [6][7]
海尔智家（06690）：2025年业绩低于预期，公司提高股东回报；派息率吸引，维持买入