白糖产业日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian sugar has not been crushed, and the international market news is in a vacuum period. The raw sugar price lacks more upward drivers and is expected to remain volatile. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped have been decreasing. In the domestic market, the beet sugar pressing in the north has ended, with the output basically in line with expectations, while the cane sugar output has exceeded expectations. The domestic sugar output is expected to be around 12 million tons. Currently, the sugar market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with certain pressure on prices. However, the high energy prices drive the strong sentiment of commodities, providing support for sugar. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will fluctuate and move slightly upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan; the main contract position is 304,083 lots, a decrease of 8802 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 16,862 sheets, an increase of 520 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -122,723 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 sheets, a decrease of 520 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4383 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4330 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5565 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5495 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5325 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5460 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5470 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 222.97 tons, an increase of 21.22 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; the monthly import volume of sugar is 24 tons, a decrease of 4 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 52 tons, an increase of 24 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 199.23 tons, an increase of 44.17 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 69.75 tons, an increase of 16.55 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi is 565.13 tons, an increase of 162.23 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 149.34 tons, an increase of 50.93 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359.04 tons, an increase of 228.74 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1342.1 tons, an increase of 296.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 14.71%, an increase of 3.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 14.6%, an increase of 3.17%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 10.75%, a decrease of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 10.05%, a decrease of 0.04% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the first half of March, the sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.7%; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 88.6%; sugar mills used 95.14% of the sugarcane to produce ethanol, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year [2].