瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2605 contract traded in a range. The macro - situation involves the US military's quick - decision plan for ground warfare. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. Steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction, providing support for iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows DIFF and DEA running near the 0 - axis. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price: 813.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan [2] - I main contract position: 371,421 lots, down 15,823 lots [2] - I 5 - 9 contract spread: 22 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2] - I contract top 20 net position: - 5,545 lots, up 1,075 lots [2] - Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts: 2,700.00 lots, down 500.00 lots [2] - Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00: 107.25 US dollars/ton, up 0.30 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore: 846 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fine ore: 823 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore: 742 yuan/dry ton, unchanged [2] - I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract): 10 yuan, up 4 yuan [2] - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day): 108.10 US dollars/ton, down 0.40 US dollars [2] - Ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fine ore: 3.21, unchanged [2] - Estimated import cost: 861 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - Global iron ore shipments (weekly): 2,472.40 million tons, down 671.90 million tons [2] - China's 47 - port arrivals (weekly): 2,626.70 million tons, up 243.60 million tons [2] - 47 - port iron ore inventory (weekly): 17,666.83 million tons, down 147.35 million tons [2] - Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly): 8,978.56 million tons, down 55.50 million tons [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Iron ore imports (monthly): 9,764.00 million tons, down 1,475.00 million tons [2] - Iron ore available days (weekly): 25.00 days, up 6 days [2] - 266 mines' daily output (weekly): 40.16 million tons, down 0.69 million tons [2] - 266 mines' operating rate (weekly): 63.62%, down 0.67% [2] - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly): 61.95 million tons, down 1.18 million tons [2] - BDI index: 2,031.00, up 17.00 [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao: 30.48 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Western Australia - Qingdao: 10.99 US dollars/ton, up 0.39 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly): 81.05%, up 1.25% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly): 86.65%, up 1.10% [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily): 15.38%, up 0.02% [2] - Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily): 16.21%, down 0.20% [2] - At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily): 21.95%, down 0.82% [2] - At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily): 22.08%, up 0.22% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 2,472.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 841.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 million tons [2] - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, China's 47 - port arrivals totaled 2,626.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 million tons; 45 - port arrivals totaled 2,426.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports totaled 1,198.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 million tons. Australia's shipments were 1,033.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 million tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 839.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 million tons [2]