鸡蛋周报：需求备货告一段落，近月承压回落-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall egg market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, but the inventory remains at a high level, and there is still supply pressure. The future production capacity is expected to peak and decline. In the short term, there is an optimistic expectation for the spot price from March to April, but considering the replenishment situation, there may be new supply pressure from May to June, which limits the rebound height of the futures price [3][21]. - The cost of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn is rising steadily, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 3.1 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is around the break - even point [3][32]. - The seasonal consumption is in the off - season, with a phased consumption recovery after the temperature warms up. The inventory pressure in the production area is reduced, while the inventory replenishment in the sales area is completed, and the demand is not strong [26]. - Vegetable and pork prices are putting downward pressure on egg prices [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Review - Last week, the basis strengthened significantly, and the futures price followed the spot price passively [5]. - The futures price rebounded to a certain extent due to the increase in capital attention, but was still suppressed by the high - level inventory [36]. 3.2 Spot Market Review - The inventory in the production area is low, with a shortage of small eggs, and the sales area has completed inventory replenishment [9]. 3.3 Supply Analysis 3.3.1 New Replenishment - The utilization rate of hatching eggs has increased, the price of chicks is high, and the overall enthusiasm for replenishment is high, which will mainly affect the supply from July to August. The new supply pressure from January to March 2026 is relatively small, but the new supply from May to June is expected to increase [3][10][11]. 3.3.2 Culling - The price of culled chickens has risen, the culling volume is at a low level, the age of chickens has increased, and the culling speed has slowed down. The current available culling volume is about 100 million, and the culling volume in the range of 350 - 450 days is about 220 million. The overall breeding is not profitable, and there is a contradiction between culling and waiting for the Spring Festival for molting [13][19]. 3.3.3 Production Capacity - Whether through normal culling or molting, the future production capacity is expected to peak and decline [21]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Seasonally, it is the off - season for consumption, but there is a phased consumption recovery after the temperature warms up. The inventory pressure in the production area is reduced, and the temperature is rising, so the producers are active in shipping. The inventory replenishment in the sales area is completed, and the hot and humid weather in the sales area increases the storage difficulty, resulting in weak demand [26]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost of raw materials such as soybean meal and corn continues to strengthen, and the feed cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty, with the comprehensive breeding cost at about 3.1 yuan per catty. The breeding cost has risen rapidly, while the spot price of eggs has increased slightly, and the profit is around the break - even point [3][32]. 3.6 Strategy Suggestions - Short - sell at high positions. - Conduct reverse spread operations in the JD5 - 9 spread range. - Close the 4 - 5/4 - 6 positive spread positions [3].