2026年二季度橡胶策略报告-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase while demand remains stable in the second quarter. The price of natural rubber may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to contract while demand remains stable, with increased cost - side disturbances. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [62]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price: Futures Market Fluctuates Widely - The uncertainty of weather in the rubber - producing areas will increase the volatility of rubber prices. International trade tariff barriers may lead to a slowdown in external demand, while domestic demand aims to keep car sales stable in the second quarter under the guidance of the stable - growth work plan [62]. 3.2 Supply: El Niño Event, Increased Uncertainty in Weather - Global Natural Rubber Production: In the second quarter of 2026, global natural rubber production will increase quarter - on - quarter. For example, in January 2026, the production of ANRPC members was 1,055.9 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [5][7]. - Overseas Main - producing Countries' Exports: The total exports of overseas main - producing countries increased year - on - year [9]. - Demand in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited [10]. - China's Rubber Imports: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. However, the import volume in February was 601,000 tons. The import volume of China's rubber is expected to show an increasing trend in the second quarter [13]. - Supply of Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export. In February 2026, the export volume of butadiene rubber was 24,896 tons, exceeding the import volume of 24,106 tons [16][22][23]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Stable Growth - Tire Demand: The demand growth momentum of semi - steel tires is restricted. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased and the inventory decreased slightly, while the start - up rate of semi - steel tires slowed down and the inventory remained high. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires reached 1.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [26][31][35]. - Automobile Production and Sales: Automobile production and sales are stable with a slight increase. The demand for heavy - duty trucks decreased seasonally in February [36][37]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in the Accumulation of Natural Rubber Inventory - Qingdao Natural Rubber Inventory: The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory was 692,100 tons [39][40]. - Exchange Inventory of Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber: As of March 27, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber was 125,410 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 137,630 tons. The warehouse receipt of No. 20 rubber was 43,646 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 45,763 tons [44]. 3.5 Position: Low Position - RU Contract Position: The position of the RU contract is presented in the form of charts, showing the position changes of different contracts over time [45]. - NR and BR Positions: As of March 20, 2026, the total position of natural rubber was 209,074 lots, the total position of No. 20 rubber was 93,261 lots, and the total position of BR was 114,718 lots [47]. 3.6 Options - Natural Rubber Options: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of natural rubber options are presented [50][52]. - Butadiene Rubber Options: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of butadiene rubber options are presented [56][59].