Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-30 09:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Aluminum (601600.SH) with a current price of 11.44 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 241.13 billion CNY in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.67 billion CNY, up 2.2% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights the impact of asset impairment losses amounting to 3.61 billion CNY, which significantly affected the fourth quarter performance [9]. - The integrated business model of the company provides strong resource security, with a high self-sufficiency rate in bauxite resources [9]. - The company is optimizing its balance sheet, reducing long-term debt from 39.4 billion CNY at the end of 2020 to 27.2 billion CNY by the end of 2025, and decreasing the debt-to-asset ratio from 63.5% to 46.0% [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 253.38 billion CNY, 255.11 billion CNY, and 260.42 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of 5.1%, 0.7%, and 2.1% [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 22.70 billion CNY in 2026, 23.04 billion CNY in 2027, and 25.26 billion CNY in 2028, with growth rates of 79.1%, 1.5%, and 9.6% respectively [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.32 CNY in 2026, 1.34 CNY in 2027, and 1.47 CNY in 2028 [3][10]. Production and Pricing Insights - The company produced 8.08 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2025, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, and the aluminum price averaged 20,721 CNY per ton, up 4.0% year-on-year [9]. - The report notes a significant drop in alumina prices, which affected profitability in the alumina segment [9]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.147 CNY per share at the end of 2025, resulting in a total cash dividend of 4.63 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 36.6% [9].