瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If the geopolitical conflict persists and supports oil prices at a high level, inflation stickiness expectations may strengthen, pushing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to remain strong, which may suppress the rebound space of precious metals. However, if the slowdown of the US economy is further verified by data, with weak non - farm payroll data and significantly higher CPI inflation, gold prices may benefit from the substantial increase in stagflation risks. In the long - term, central banks' continuous gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit still exist, and gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains. The strategy can be short - term wait - and - see and long - term bargain - hunting [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 16.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 17707 yuan/kg, up 218 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 180,953 hands, up 11,870 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 25,923 hands, down 6,769 hands. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 393,515 hands, up 77,112 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,060,304 hands, up 186,734 hands. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 106,644 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 374,427 kg, up 2,628 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1008.75 yuan/gram, up 14.85 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 17,305 yuan/kg, up 157 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.13 yuan/gram, down 1.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 402 yuan/kg, down 61 yuan [2] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1052.70 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,409.46 tons, unchanged. - The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC are 168,327 contracts, up 8,458 contracts; the non - commercial net long positions of silver in CFTC are 24,673 contracts, up 2,792 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. - The US dollar index is 100.18, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.13%, up 0.05% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index is 31.05, up 3.61; the CBOE gold volatility index is 45.51, up 0.44. - The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.41, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio is 66.44, up 0.21 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. The US vice - president says the US has no intention to stay in Iran. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to be intense and stalemate, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the degree and frequency of air - raids on Tehran increasing. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of the US economic recession due to the continuous Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised it to 30%. - A "weeks - long quick victory" ground - war plan of the US military in Iran is exposed, and the US Department of Defense is preparing for a weeks - long ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 US troops in the Middle - East. - Trump will submit an annual budget request to the US Congress on April 3, seeking a significant increase in defense spending and a reduction in the scale of domestic institutions, with the proposed national security spending possibly reaching up to $1.5 trillion. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.9%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hikes by June is 8.8%, 50 - basis - point hikes is 0.1%, and keeping rates unchanged is 91.1% [2] 6. Key Points to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index - April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment Number - April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI - April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 - April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance - April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]