瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1860 - 1910 yuan/ton in the short term [2] - Although reserve supplies are being released, most urea factories still have tight supplies, and the inventory of some factories is gradually decreasing. In the last stage of stockpiling, local factories actively releasing reserves may lead to a decline in urea enterprise inventory [2] - The market trading sentiment has cooled down under the multiple measures of price - guiding constraints and the release of reserve supplies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1882 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 46 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 770 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 188,548 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,655 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 8,707, with no change [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1870 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Shandong is 1900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu is 1890 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 622.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.5 US dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 752.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 US dollars/ton [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 23 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 70.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%; the daily urea output is 210,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,300 tons [2] - The urea export volume is 11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20%; the monthly urea output is 6,035,310 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 254,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 51.24%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.27%; the melamine operating rate is 65.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 6.67% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 2,719 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,707 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 444.13 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons, or 13.40% [2] - As of March 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, or 1.20% [2] - As of March 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4756 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43.8 million tons, or 2.88%; the capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84% [2]