农业周专题系列四：仔猪价格旺季下跌，养殖行业现金流加速消耗

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector [12] Core Insights - The price of weaned piglets has accelerated its decline, with prices for 7 kg piglets falling below 300 yuan per head, while the pig price continues to fluctuate at a low level, leading to industry losses that have persisted for about six months. Market-driven capacity reduction is expected to accelerate [2][6] - Geopolitical issues are ongoing, and rising crude oil prices are pushing basic agricultural product prices upward, which may further increase breeding costs. The combination of falling pig prices and rising costs is expected to exacerbate industry losses and accelerate cash flow depletion for breeding enterprises [2][6] - During the downward cycle, the competitiveness of breeding costs will become the core competitive advantage for enterprises. This cycle may lead to a continuous optimization of the industry competitive landscape, with companies that have cost advantages and cash flow expected to enjoy longer profit cycles. The report is optimistic about the pig breeding sector and recommends focusing on it [2][6] Summary by Sections Pig Breeding - As of March 20, 2026, the average price of pigs nationwide is 9.99 yuan/kg, down 33% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The price of 15 kg piglets is 385 yuan/head, down 39% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month; the price of 7 kg piglets is 294 yuan/head, down 43% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [19] - The industry has faced losses for six months, with cash flow pressure becoming increasingly prominent. Given the current relatively loose supply of pigs, prices are likely to remain at the bottom during the traditional off-season from March to April [7][19] - The report highlights the core competitiveness of low-cost breeding enterprises and continues to recommend companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Dekang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [7] Beef Breeding - Since 2026, beef prices have risen significantly, with the price of fattened bulls at 26.02 yuan/kg, up 8% year-on-year, and calf prices at 34.8 yuan/kg, up 38% year-on-year. The price of breeding cows is 9700 yuan/head, up 10% year-on-year [8][42] - The current cycle of beef breeding has seen prolonged losses, leading to a significant reduction in domestic breeding cow capacity. The report anticipates that the current cycle of beef breeding may last over two years due to tightening global beef supply [8][42] Other Agricultural Products - As of March 20, 2026, corn prices are 2333 yuan/ton, up 6% year-on-year; soybean meal prices are 3372 yuan/ton, up 1% year-on-year; and wheat prices are 2600 yuan/ton, up 7% year-on-year [62][64] - Geopolitical issues may continue to boost agricultural product prices, with rising oil prices increasing planting costs in major agricultural regions [9]