天虹国际集团：25年纱线毛利率改善2.5pct，偿债带动财务费用显著减少-20260330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianhong International Group (2678) [2][3] Core Insights - In 2025, the gross margin for the yarn business improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.2%. The reduction in financial expenses due to debt repayment significantly contributed to this improvement. For 2026, yarn sales are expected to grow by 1.4%, benefiting from rising cotton prices, thus justifying the "Buy" rating [3][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years 2024A to 2028E are as follows: - 2024A: 23,029 - 2025A: 22,716 (down 1.4% YoY) - 2026E: 23,965 (up 5.5% YoY) - 2027E: 24,805 (up 3.5% YoY) - 2028E: 25,437 (up 2.5% YoY) [5] - Gross profit and net profit attributable to the parent company are projected as follows: - 2024A: Gross profit 2,863, Net profit 554 - 2025A: Gross profit 3,138, Net profit 913 (up 64.9% YoY) - 2026E: Gross profit 3,387, Net profit 1,088 (up 19.1% YoY) - 2027E: Gross profit 3,547, Net profit 1,192 (up 9.6% YoY) - 2028E: Gross profit 3,677, Net profit 1,284 (up 7.7% YoY) [5] Business Performance - In 2025, the yarn segment generated revenue of 181.1 billion RMB, a 1.1% increase YoY, with sales volume up 6.3% and price down 4.9%. The company sold 433,000 tons in the second half of 2025, exceeding the target of 400,000 tons. The overall gross margin for the year was 14.2%, attributed to improved capacity utilization, especially in overseas factories, flexible raw material procurement, and automation upgrades [6][8]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the company plans to sell 830,000 tons of yarn, a 1.4% increase YoY, while maintaining the woven fabric sales at 100 million meters. The company aims to increase yarn production capacity in Vietnam by 100,000 spindles, raising total capacity to 4.35 million spindles, a 2.4% increase YoY. Additionally, a 20MW solar power station is planned [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 8X for 2026, with a target price of 10.77 HKD, based on a conversion rate of 1 HKD = 0.88 RMB [6].