——银行业周度追踪2026年第12周：2025年报大型银行息差企稳-20260330

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" [9] Core Insights - The banking sector is currently experiencing a defensive value, with significant adjustments over the past three quarters, and is approaching relative low points from previous periods, indicating a safety margin [2][8] - The net interest margin (NIM) for large banks is stabilizing, with a notable recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 for China Merchants Bank, marking the first quarterly inflection point since deep rate cuts in 2023 [6][43] - The overall decline in NIM for large banks ranges from 7 to 21 basis points, with a clear trend of stabilization in the latter half of the year [6][43] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index fell by 0.7% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, amidst global market volatility [2][8] - The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and a systematic reduction in risk appetite, leading to a more pronounced decline in smaller banks within the A-share market [2][8] Interest Margin Analysis - The NIM for large banks in 2025 is expected to show a narrowing decline of less than 10 basis points, primarily in the first quarter, with structural changes in loan types and LPR repricing still affecting margins [7][44] - The loan yield has generally decreased by around 60 basis points, reflecting the impact of previous mortgage repricing and LPR adjustments [7][44] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, as well as China Merchants Bank, which has shown a rebound in dividend yield [2][8] - Attention is also drawn to low-valuation, high-dividend banks like Industrial Bank, which have significant potential for convertible bond conversion [35][37] Fund Flows - The CSI 300 index funds have seen net inflows for two consecutive weeks, with a notable net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan into dividend-related index funds [19][30] - However, there has been a slight net outflow from the Shanghai 50 and banking-related index funds, indicating a potential reduction in absolute return fund positions [19][30]